Take a look at the MLB standings today, and you’ll see some very strange things. Toronto is 11-5, Kansas City is 8-6, Seattle is 9-6, Florida is 11-4 (even AFTER being swept), San Diego is 9-6, and the Pirates (!!!) are 9-6. On the other hand, the Diamondbacks, Mets, Phillies, Angels, A’s, Indians, and Rays all have losing records. What does this mean? We’ll look at that, plus take a quick look at the NHL playoffs and the NFL draft.
Looking at those records, it’s easy to jump to conclusions and declare a team a ‘surprise’ or a ‘disappointment’. Be careful – 162 games is a VERY long season, and we haven’t even completed 10% of it yet. If Philly or the Angels went 7-8 in August, for example, it wouldn’t attract nearly as much attention as it does when they start a season so slowly. Toronto might go 11-4 in September when they are 20 games back, and no one will take much note. Now, these wins absolutely count, and I’m willing to bet that at least one surprise team and one disappointing team above will end the year in the same category – but we don’t really know who they will be yet. My GUESSES (and they are nothing but guesses) are that Florida and KC will remain contenders late into the summer, and the Phillies and Indians will be the disappointments (in Philly’s case, it’s because I think ace pitcher Cole Hamels is still hurt, and without him they don’t have the pitching to win).
Let’s take a moment and look at the Pirates – 9-6, yes, but the real story is the pitching. 2nd in MLB in ERA, four shutouts in 15 games, and 10 quality starts already (and really only 2 BAD starts). Can it continue? My answer is a qualified yes – they won’t finish 2nd in ERA or even top-5, but the control improvement may well be real. Combine that with a good defense (necessary because Pirate pitchers don’t get a lot of strikeouts) and you have the makings of a decent staff. The injury to catcher Ryan Doumit hurts, but this offense wasn’t ever going to be a powerhouse anyway. I’d like to see more strikeouts, and I’m still skeptical of Karstens and Snell, but I think there’s a chance to build a good rotation here. They won’t contend, but .500 might be possible, and with the bats on the way (Alvarez, Tabata, and McCutchen), this team might become dangerous in the Central within two years.
Onto the NHL playoffs – we’ll cover this in much more depth next week, but a few things I’ve observed:
-Detroit has looked scary-good so far. If they play defense like this in the next three rounds, they are prohibitive favorites.
-San Jose may escape the first round, but they’ve looked terrible, especially their forwards. They need to find another gear to beat Vancouver or Detroit.
-The most entertaining series, and the one I think is most likely to go seven games, is Calgary-Chicago. The Flames have made an impressive comeback, wining the last two games to even the series. If you get a chance, check this series out – VERY entertaining hockey.
-Goalie Henrik Lundqvist is single-handedly stealing the series for the Rangers. The Capitals have outplayed New York by a wide margin yet are down 3 games to 1. Lundqvist is putting on a clinic, a hall-of-fame level performance.
-Boston has it all going on right now – in the East, they are the only team I think can handle Pittsburgh if Washington loses their series.
-In a similar vein, Fleury has been the main difference between the Flyers and Penguins – the series is probably at best tied 2-2 without Fleury’s heroics in games 2 and 4.
-I’ll be attending Game 5 tonight, and this is almost like a Game 7 for Pittsburgh. They were outplayed in both games in Philly, which leads me to believe a loss tonight will likely mean a loss in Philly Saturday. Hopefully the Pens pick it up a notch and send the Flyers packing tonight.
Let’s finish up with a look at the NFL Draft. There are seemingly thousands of mock drafts out there, but almost every single one is worthless – as soon as one or two unanticipated picks happen, usually around #8 or so, the whole mock draft collapses. As for the Steelers, I’ve learned to trust their scouting acumen, and I mainly look to see if the team drafts positions I think they need. Last year I took the Steelers to task for taking a running back with an early pick, but I liked some of the other picks. This season I’ll be watching for them to address both lines, shore up the depth at WR, and probably pick up a corner for depth as well. I was going to review the Steelers’ recent draft history, but Bob Smizik has an excellent blog entry addressing this, so I’ll let you read his work. In short, I agree with Bob all the way – despite a few misses, the Steelers clearly know what they are doing and have a proven track record of draft success.
One last note: after the draft, the flood of ‘draft grades’ almost equals the torrent of mock drafts this week. Don’t be so quick to judge, drafts can take YEARS to show success or failure. The 2008 Steelers draft is a perfect example: with Mendenhall hurt, not one member of their draft made a meaningful contribution in 2008 (with the possible exception of WR Limas Sweed late in the year). However, we still can’t assess the draft for at least another two years, until we see how these players have developed.
What do Alex Smith, Cedric Benson, Robert Gallery, Charles Rogers, Dewayne Robertson, David Carr, and Joey Harrington all have in common? They ALL were failed top-5 draft picks from 2002 through 2005, but none were known to be busts until at least 3 years had passed. However the draft turns out this weekend, don’t grade it – look back on it in 2012 and decide how the team did.
I leave you with this excellent article from footballoutsiders.com, a must-read article if you have any interest in the NFL draft.
Dave Glass lives in Clearfield with his wife, Suzanne, and their six children. He can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.