The Glass Eye: NHL Playoffs Begin!
At last, the Easter Eggs are found, the Masters is over, and the NHL playoffs are set. Speaking of the Masters, I think there’s a case to be made that the first full week of April is the best sporting week of the year. You get the NCAA basketball title game, baseball opening day/week, the Masters, and the last week of the NHL season. October has its share of great games as well, but to me nothing beats the feeling of renewal and energy I sense when watching the Masters and MLB opening day. Anyway, onto the NHL, we’ll preview every first-round series, starting with the teams out west.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
#1 San Jose: 53-18-11, 251 goals scored (T-7th in NHL), 199 goals against (3rd in NHL) vs. #8 Anaheim: 42-33-7, 238 GS (T-14th), 235 GA (18th) – How the mighty have fallen. Only two years removed from a Stanley Cup, the Ducks barely scraped into the 8 seed in the west. The biggest concern for the Ducks has to be the decline of their defense. Former All-stars Scott Niedermayer and Chris Pronger, despite posting decent scoring totals, both had subpar years in the defensive zone. Worse still, goalie J.S. Giguere was simply terrible for much of the year, posting a goals against average (GAA) of 3.10 and losing playing time in the second half of the season to Jonas Hiller. One of these goalies simply MUST excel for the Ducks to have any chance against the powerful Sharks. The Ducks don’t have a lot of scoring depth, but they did have four 25-goal scorers.
San Jose, owner of the best record in the league, seemingly has it all – scoring depth, great defense, and a proven goalie. What they don’t have is a history of success in the postseason, particularly star center Joe Thornton. Thornton needs to have a good series for his own mental well-being – the Sharks can probably best the Ducks without his A-game, but the Red Wings or Canucks are another story. Both teams have excellent power plays, but Anaheim struggles on the penalty kill.
The only way I see an upset here is if Anaheim gets many more power plays than the Sharks, and if one of the Duck goalies stands on his head. Unlikely. SHARKS IN 5.
#2 Detroit: 51-21-10, 295 GS (1st), 244 GA (T-19) vs. Columbus: 41-31-10, 220 GS (20th), 223 GA (T-9th) – Watch this series carefully, as I believe it will give us a good idea about whether Detroit can repeat as champs. The key for Detroit is defense and goaltending – as you can see, they can score goals in bunches on anyone, and they had four 30-goal scorers. However, they’ve had a number of BIG defensive breakdowns, including an 8-2 loss to the Blue Jackets. Detroit gave up six or more goals SEVEN times, a very high number for such a good team. The problem for Columbus is that they have NO scoring depth after Rick Nash, R.J. Umberger, and Christian Huselius. No one else on the team scored even 15 goals or 40 points! No, Columbus’ ace in the hole (and only chance) is rookie goalie Steve Mason, who sported a 2.23 GAA and a sparkling .916 save percentage. If he can even approach those figures against the mighty Red Wings, this will be a long series.
You’ve gotta figure Detroit will win, Columbus is on the rise but needs a few more pieces. Watch the Detroit defensemen and goalies, though – if they give up more than two goals per game to this team, they’re in trouble in later rounds. I like Mason to steal a game or two, but that’s all – RED WINGS IN 6.
#3 Vancouver: 45-27-10, 243 GS (11th), 213 GA (7th) vs. #6 St. Louis: 41-31-10, 227 GS (19th), 227 GA (12th) – Here is a series that will test the idea that momentum means anything. No one won more games in the second half than the Blues, not even the red-hot Penguins. However, Vancouver is a dark-horse candidate to get to the Finals – they don’t have the pedigree of the Wings or the gaudy record of the Sharks, but they have (in my opinion) the best goalie in the league in Roberto Luongo. Consider than Luongo was 33-13-7 this season, with a 2.34 GAA and a .920 save percentage. All other Vancouver netminders combined for a 12-14-3 record, a GAA around 2.6, and a save percentage around .905. In short, he’s great, and Vancouver always has a chance with Luongo in net. The Canucks also boast better scoring depth than in years past, and a capable defense.
The Blues are a young team, much like Columbus and Chicago. They have a bevy of young, developing forwards and got a great season out of 32-year-old goalie Chris Mason. I’m not crazy about their defense, they rely too heavily on forwards for ALL their scoring, but Vancouver doesn’t have a dominant blueliner either. The Blues are better than the Canucks both on the power play and killing penalties, so St. Louis would like to see a series with a lot of penalties called. I think these teams are fairly equal, EXCEPT for the Luongo factor, and that’s why I’m taking the CANUCKS IN 6.
#4 Chicago: 46-24-12, 260 GS (T-4th), 209 GA (5th) vs. Calgary: 46-30-6, 251 GF (T-7th), 246 GA (23rd) – Of the stats I just listed, the last one is the killer for Calgary. 23rd in goals against just won’t get it done in the postseason, and unlike some other teams that made major adjustments in-season, the Flames’ defense didn’t get any better down the stretch – in fact the Flames allowed five goals or more in seven of their last 22 games – no surprise they went only 10-12 in that span. Longtime goalie Mikka Kiprusoff appeared in 76 of 82 games, and one has to wonder if he became fatigued down the stretch. Certainly backup G Curtis McElhinney inspires no confidence, as he compiled an outrageous 3.59 GAA in 14 games. The Flames can score, and they kill penalties very well, but they were not a good 5-on-5 team at all this season.
Chicago, on the other hand, comes into the postseason on a serious roll, having gone 9-2-1 since March 20. Veteran G Nicolai Khabibulin enjoyed his best season since his Cup-winning days with Tampa, compiling a 25-8-7 record and a 2.33 GAA. His backup/partner, Christobal Huet, also had a solid year, which gives the Blackhawks options if the ‘Bulin Wall’ crumbles a bit during the playoffs. Chicago had 10 players score 40 points or more, and none are over 30 – indeed all but one are 27 or younger! This looks to me like the last gasp for the Flames before a rebuild, much like Ottawa last season. Chicago will be a contender for years to come, and I think they start the new era off with a bang, BLACKHAWKS IN 5.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#1 Boston: 53-19-10, 270 GS (2nd), 190 GA (1st) vs. Montreal: 41-30-11, 242 GS (T-12th) 240 GA (21st) – Check out Boston’s goals for and against. They outscored their opponents by almost A GOAL PER GAME – that’s a dominant performance, and it was spearheaded by G Tim Thomas’ MVP-type season: 36-11-7, 2.10 GAA, .933 save percentage. Boston is the best 5-on-5 team in the league, with eight players rated +20 or better in the +/- category, and exceptionally balanced scoring (10 players with 10 goals or more, nine players with 42 points or more). It’s hard to see any weakness in the Bruins’ game.
Montreal, on the other hand, has sagged under the weight of lofty preseason expectations. Sophomore G Carey Price struggled terribly at times, and injuries robbed the team of needed depth. The Canadiens still boast a cadre of skilled shooters, but four of their top-8 scorers are age 34 or older. This appears to me to be a team in transition, and GM Bob Gainey must make the right moves to keep this team in the playoff hunt in the near-term.
Last season Montreal was the #1 seed, Boston was #8, and the Canadiens needed seven games to get past pesky Boston. If Montreal can shake Thomas’ confidence early, this could become a good series, but I think they are out of gas. The Habs don’t have it this time, BRUINS IN FIVE.
#2 Washington: 52-24-8, 268 GS (3rd), 240 GA (19th) vs. New York Rangers: 43-30-9, 200 GS (28th), 212 GA (6th) – If Calgary gives up too many to be a real contender, then clearly the Rangers don’t score enough to be a real contender. 28th in goal scoring won’t cut it no matter how good your goalie is, and in New York’s case they have a good one in Henrik Lundqvist. This is a classic strength-on-strength, weakness-on-weakness series. The strengths are Washington’s fearsome offense, led by likely league MVP Alex Ovechkin and his 56 goals, against the Rangers’ defense and stellar penalty killing. The Rangers have to limit the Caps’ power play opportunities and minimize the Ovechkin-Backstrom line, because the Caps don’t have a great deal of scoring depth (easier said than done, however).
The weaknesses are New York’s anemic offense vs. The Caps’ rather porous defense, and particularly G Jose ‘three-or-more’ Theodore. The Rangers’ offense definitely improved late in the season with the additions of Nik Antropov, Sean Avery, and coach John Torotorella, but this is still a team that struggles to score goals. Really, Washington should be thrilled to get this matchup, as I believe the Rangers are the only team in the east without enough offense to exploit the Caps’ defensive issues. The ONLY chance for the Rangers is to steal a game early in Washington and shake Theodore’s confidence – if the Caps win the first two games, this series won’t last long. Washington will have issues in the next round, but I like the CAPS IN FIVE, and a sweep wouldn’t surprise me at all.
New Jersey: 51-27-4, 238 GS (15th), 207 GA (4th) vs. Carolina: 45-30-7, 236 GS (16th), 221 GA (8th) – These are not the ‘90’s, boring, trapping Devils – this team can score some goals. Six Devils scored 20 goals, and eight players scored 15. Zach Parise continued to establish himself as a top-tier star in the NHL, with 45 goals and 94 points. Despite all that offense, the team is still defined by their outstanding defense and their Hall-of-fame goalie, Martin Brodeur. After setting the all-time wins record, the Brodeur and the Devils both hit a rough patch, but the team finished strong, winning four of their last five games. Interestingly, this Devils team struggled on both ends of the special teams battle, especially on the penalty kill – an area the Hurricanes will look to exploit.
The ‘Canes don’t have the scoring depth up front that the Devils have, but they get a lot more scoring from their blueline. Those defenders will have to stay active if the ‘Canes hope to knock off the Devils. It’s hard to believe G Cam Ward is still only 24 – his Cup-winning playoff run seems so long ago! Quietly, Ward enjoyed his career-best regular season and is in my mind the key player for Carolina – he has to at least match Brodeur for the ‘Canes to advance. This has the potential to be a great series, and I think Ward will recapture some of the old magic. CANES IN SEVEN.
#4 Pittsburgh: 45-28-9, 258 GS (6th), 233 GA (17th) vs. Philadelphia: 44-27-11, 260 GS (5th), 232 GA (16th) – These teams are so similar in so many ways, it’s clear thet the little things will deide the series. Look at the goals for an against – almost identical. The penalty kill numbers are almost identical. Philly’s power play percentage is much higher, but Pittsburgh got a LOT more PP opportunities than the Flyers, and the Flyers take more penalties than the Penguins – so I think that is also fairly even. I look for the Pens to have a significant edge in one area: the goal crease. Martin Biron is a good goalie, but he’s never put together the kind of hot streak that makes you think he can carry a team in the postseason. Meanwhile, last season Marc-Andre Fleury was almost unbeatable until the Finals, and he finished the regular season strong (again) for Pittsburgh. Their overall season totals are similar, but I think until proven otherwise the Pens have a goalie advantage.
The Flyers have more forward scoring depth than the Pens, but Pittsburgh gets significantly more offense form their defense than Philly does, and that’s been even more true since Dan Bylsma took over. Pittsburgh needs Crosby and Malkin to do what they did all season – a slump here would be a crushing blow – but I think both are primed for another run. Pittsburgh needs to stay out of the box, I think they’d prefer a 5-on-5 series as much as possible. Philly wants a lot of penalties, they would have to be favored if it becomes a battle of the power-play units. This will be a MUCH closer series than last year, and I could easily see it going seven games, but after my mid-season doubts I’m a believer – at least for this round. PENS IN SIX.