Last week, I gave some thoughts on the American League, with my predictions for each team, and how those predictions compare to Vegas’ predictions. This week we’ll cruise around half of the Senior Circuit, and finish up next week. We’ll also take a brief look at the NCAA tournament.
NL WEST
Los Angeles Dodgers – 2008 record: 84-78, Vegas line: 84.5 wins. The Dodgers were the best of a mediocre lot in the west in 2008, and they appear depleted heading into 2009. The rotation is VERY thin – at this point they are counting on rookie Clayton Kershaw to be their #3 starter, and their farm system is uncharacteristically barren (ranked 21st by Baseball Prospectus (BP), their lowest ranking in years). In addition, while the offense looks good on paper, any significant injury will really hurt this team – and you may recall that SS Rafael Furcal missed almost all of 2008 with a serious back injury. Manny Ramirez is back, but he’s 37 and not likely to approach his Dodger numbers from last year. In short, they can win if they get all the breaks, and the division is still extremely weak, but it says here that this team will struggle to reach .500. I’m taking the under and 78-82 wins.
Arizona Diamondbacks – 2008 record: 82-80, Vegas line: 86.5 wins. Vegas is on the right track here, folks – this is a team on the rise. They have two aces in Dan Haren and Brandon Webb, good inning-eaters in Doug Davis and Jon Garland; but above all they have a very young offense. Not one projected starter is older than 28, and players like Justin Upton, Chris Young, and Stephen Drew can all be expected to improve this season. The bullpen might be the weak link, as I don’t see any dominant relievers on the squad, but that’s also the easiest problem to fix via trade in June or July. I look for this squad to make some good in-season deals and win 90-94 games. Not quite a true sleeper, but I definitely think the D-backs are poised for a breakout.
Colorado Rockies – 2008 record: 74-88, Vegas line: 77.5 wins. The trade of Matt Holliday tells you all you need to know: Colorado is rebuilding. As usual the rotation is suspect, and while the Rockies have their usual array of fantasy baseball stars, in real life this offense will not harken memories of the Blake Street Bombers of the 90’s. Todd Helton is a shell of his former self, and while there are a few promising young bats, overall 2009 could be very ugly in Denver. I’m taking the under here, I think the offense might really come apart and the pitching isn’t nearly good enough to compensate. I’m saying 68-72 wins here.
San Francisco Giants – 2008 record: 72-90, Vegas line: 80.5 wins. I can understand GM Brian Sabean’s line of thought here. He has the best young pitcher in baseball (Tim Lincecum), a deep starting staff, a decent bullpen, a pitchers’ park – and a bad offense. Why not try to emulate the ’65 Dodgers and simply outpitch everyone? In this weak division, it just might keep them in the race. Make no mistake, this is a bad offense – last season they scored less than four runs per game, ahead of only San Diego. However, if the pitching improves to top-3 in the league (overall they were league-average last season), it just might get this team to 84 wins or so, and give them a chance. I think the Vegas line is just about spot-on – this team isn’t in Arizona’s class, but I can easily see them finishing second in the division. Call it 80-84 wins.
San Diego Padres – 2008 record: 63-99, Vegas line: 70.5. It’s hard to believe that two years ago, this team missed out on the playoffs by a single game. The Pads fell hard last season, and are not exactly candidates for a worst-to-first story in 2009. On offense, they have Adrian Gonzalez..and that’s about it. There’s SOME potential in Chase Headley and less in Kevin Kouzmanoff, but aside from them it’s an offensive wasteland in San Diego. The pitching could be decent if Jake Peavy isn’t traded and Chris Young isn’t injured, but I think both will happen and this Padre squad will be in the running for the #1 draft pick in 2010. With the 25th-ranked farm system according to BP, this is going to take some time. I’m definitely on the under here, I’ll say 62-66 wins.
NL EAST
Philadelphia Phillies – 2008 record: 92-70, Vegas line: 88.5 wins. The defending World Series champs return almost intact, swapping out LF Pat Burrell for Raul Ibanez. This deal was a real head-scratcher for me when it was made (Ibanez got a 3-yr, $30 million contract), and as the winter progressed it became clear that Philly overpaid for a 37-year-old player. Make no mistake, Ibanez can still hit, and his age-induced decline should be masked by the move from Safeco Field to hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park. However, he’s not a good fielder, almost certainly not an improvement over Burrell, and he further unbalances the Phils’ lineup as a lefty batter, especially if they plan to bat him behind Utley and Howard (both southpaw batters). That decision aside, this team should once again contend in the East – they remain a very potent offense, perhaps even moreso if Chase Utley’s hip is close to 100%. The big question, of course, is the health of ace Cole Hamels. Hamels has reported elbow pain and may miss opening day – never a good sign for a pitcher with Hamels’ injury history. If Hamels ends up down for the count, so is the Phillies’ season – he’s irreplaceable, and this rotation does not have the depth to withstand his loss. I also tend to think that Jaime Moyer will show his age this season and lose effectiveness. In short, while I think this team will contend I think the combination of age, injury, and the Mets will keep this team short of a division title. I do think they remain the wild-card favorites, though, and I think 86-88 wins sounds about right.
New York Mets – 2008 record: 89-73, Vegas line: 89.5 wins. There is plenty of talent here – the left side of the infield is probably bound for the Hall of Fame in 20 years, as is ace pitcher Johan Santana. Carlos Delgado defied Father Time in the second half, and Carlos Beltran had another excellent season in center. If they stay healthy, the Mets should easily win the East – but there’s the key element, because like the Phillies, the Mets have no depth at all in the rotation or the offense. The bullpen has been totally revamped with the additions of J.J. Putz and Francisco Rodriguez, and that should shore up a real problem area for the Mets this season. As long as Santana is healthy, I think this team will win 92-95 games.
Florida Marlins – 2008 record: 84-77, Vegas line: 75.5. I find it very interesting that Vegas is so down on the Marlins this season. As usual, the Marlins are extremely young and have a ton of potential. Last year they rode that to 84 wins, and on the surface I see no reason they cannot get to 80 wins with this talent. Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla, Cameron Maybin, and a host of starting pitching talent make this a tough team to call – if the young pitchers struggle or get hurt it will probably trigger a collapse, but it the youngsters show gradual improvement this team could conceivably challenge the Phillies for 2nd in the east. For all the flak Marlins’ management has gotten over the years – and it has deserved plenty – consider that since 1997 the franchise has 5 winning records and two World Series titles. Clearly they understand the cycle a low-revenue team must endure to remain viable, a lesson that hopefully Pittsburgh is learning. In any case, If I were a betting man I’d avoid this team entirely, the range of possibilities is too wide, especially if management decides to trade away someone like Ramirez. However, based on the talent on hand now, 75 wins is just too low. Call it 80-84 wins and don’t be overly surprised by any result from 75 wins to 88 wins.
We’ll get to the last 8 NL teams next week – let’s talk about the NCAA tournament briefly. Everyone knows how devoid of upsets the tournament has been – every 1-3 seed made the Sweet 16, and only 1 seed lower than 5 made it (and that was Arizona, a storied program, not some mid-major Cinderella). Now, some of this is simply variance – if you play the tournament enough times, eventually you’ll get a tourney where the top 12 teams all advance – but considering that in 2007 all the #1 seeds made the final, and I think there’s a reasonable chance of that occurring again this season, I think it’s fair to say there’s a growing chasm between the top-tier programs and conferences and everyone else. I also think that the lack of upsets probably reflects well on the selection committee, as it shows they are properly seeding the top 20 or so in the bracket. Like everyone else, I would like a little more excitement, a little more underdog ‘March Madness’, but I’ll settle for some tightly contested games the rest of the way.
Speaking of which, with Friday night’s action still pending let me give my predictions. I think North Carolina is (unfortunately) too strong for both Gonzaga and Oklahoma (who I believe will handle Syracuse), and will advance. I think the Kansas-MSU game should be excellent, but the winner will be taken out by Louisville. I think Missouri has a great chance to beat Connecticut, and I think that Pitt just got their bad game out of their system – Villanova is very tough, but I like Pitt in a close one. I’ll predict the Final Four games next week.
Dave Glass lives in Clearfield with his wife, Suzanne, and their six children. He can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.