The Glass Eye: Penguins Panic

 You’ve probably heard by now that the Penguins fired coach Michel Therrien last weekend. Many pundits applauded the firing, or at the very least were understanding of it. As you will see, I’m far less sympathetic to the move. We’ll take a look at the circumstances that led to Therrien’s ouster, take a look at new coach Dan Bylsma, and forecast the last 24 games of the season. In order to properly evaluate this move, let’s start by recapping Therrien’s tenure with the team.

Michel Therrien took over for Eddie Olczyk on Dec. 15, 2005 after coaching Pittsburgh’s AHL minor-league affiliate for 2 seasons. Therrien took over a disaster – there was no system, a soft defense, and despite the presence of rookie Sidney Crosby and several high-profile free agent signings the team was 8-17-6. The team suffered many more defeats that season but Therrien began to implement his strict defensive system, as well as call out those players he thought were ‘soft’. If you haven’t seen it before, I highly recommend watching this video of Therrien tearing into his team, particularly his defense corps, after yet another bad loss early on.

Expectations were low for the next season, but the Penguins improved by 47 points and made the playoffs in 2006-2007 for the first time in 6 years. After being taken out by the Senators quickly in the playoffs, Pittsburgh had another strong regular season in 2007-2008, despite a myriad of injuries to such core players as Crosby and Marc-Andre Fleury. They followed that with their near-magical run to the Stanly Cup final. Expectations were understandably high coming into this season, despite several costly free-agent departures.

The Eye predicted a big season for the Penguins, citing the defensive depth, Fleury’s continued development and the signing of Miroslav Satan as key ingredients in a successful season. I also cited the 3-year extension signed by Therrien over the summer as a good move, and applauded GM Ray Shero’s willingness to commit to Therrien. The team got off to a good start then imploded, now standing in 10th place in the Eastern Conference, 6 points (3 games) behind 8th-place Buffalo with only 24 games remaining. What happened?

We’ve talked about the injuries and the free-agent turnover of the roster, but the team had a lot of injuries early in the season and was still winning. To me, the key culprits this season have been the defense, depth, and a short offseason. Last season the Pens averaged 3.01 goals per game and allowed 2.63. This season the scores 2.98 goals per game but allows 3.07 per game. I’ve noticed a lack of hustle and positioning on defense, as well as the team flat-out been outworked many times against inferior opponents – something that was VERY rare a year ago. Since returning from injury Ryan Whitney has been terrible in his own end, earning a hard-to-fathom –15 +/- rating in only 25 games**. Fleury has played well, but his backups have not – Dany Sabourin was run out of town for his lackluster performances, and new backup Mathieu Garon was shaky in his only appearance thus far.

**Many of you probably don’t understand the +/- statistic. Simply put, you get a ‘+’ if you are on the ice while your team scores a non-powerplay goal, you get a minus if on the ice when the other team scores a non-powerplay goal. The stat CAN be deceiving, but extremely positive or negative numbers, especially for defensemen, generally are a fair indicator of defensive prowess. Kris Letang is –6 in 52 games, and Brooks Orpik is –4 – not great but not THAT far into the red. No other defenseman on the team is negative. To be –15 in only 25 games is astoundingly bad.

The depth has been an issue at forward – Malkin, Crosby, and Sykora have more or less been the only consistent offense for the team. Satan has been a terrible disappointment, and no one else has more than 15 goals. As for the offseason, lost in the fun last summer was the specter of a very short summer break and with the Sweden trip to begin the season, training camp was also very short and very unusual. I think all these factors have led to an underachieving squad.

Back to Therrien – he deserved criticism for the defensive play, since that tough defensive structure was his main calling card. He deserved criticism for his frequent changing of line combinations, his rather irascible personality, and for helping construct the current roster. But 3 months of substandard play and he’s GONE?? How does that make any sense? The team just gave him a 3-year extension in July – 7 months later they’re 100% sure that he’s the problem?

Of course, GM Ray Shero is a smart man, he knows that Therrien isn’t 100% responsible for this, and maybe not even 50%. Shero felt pressure from above to make the playoffs and as that chance was dwindling he felt he had to do SOMETHING – so he took the easy way out, he fired the 2nd-winningest coach in Penguins’ history. In so doing he perpetuated the image of the Pens as inmates running the asylum.** You’d hope that at some point the sterling example of the Steelers’ franchise just across the river, a team that has had 3 coaches in 40 years (and by the way, 6 titles in that time), would appeal to Pens’ brass.

** It’s an open secret that in the 1990’s the players at turns either ignored coaches, even hall-of-fame caliber coaches like Scotty Bowman, or ran them out of town. I’ve read several reports that Bowman was barred from practice by Mario & Friends…no wonder he left for Detroit after 1993!

In any sport consistency is key – consistent talent, consistent management, consistent coaching. The Steelers’ players KNOW that if they cross the coach and make it a him-or-me situation, the player will lose 100 times out of 100. The Penguins, on the other hand, have to believe now that if they force the issue they can get a coach fired. I’m not saying the players revolted – by most accounts Crosby had no issue with Therrien, and I think the team would abide in what Crosby wanted – but certainly Bylsma, or any future coach in the near-term, can’t believe job security is high behind the Pens’ bench.

From my vantage point, the decision wasn’t well thought-out, either – Therrien presided over an embarrassing loss last Saturday, then was allowed to run practice Sunday. Shero replaced him and had Bylsma in place for Monday’s game with NO practice time to implement his own wishes. A truly reasoned approach would have been to ax Therrien Monday evening after an afternoon game; the Pens had 2 off-days, a perfect time for the team to assimilate Bylsma’s teachings, then play a strong home game Thursday. Shero’s hasty decision no doubt contributed to the Pens’ overtime loss to the worst team in the league, the Islanders, on Monday.

The bottom line here is that the Penguins refused to take the long view on this situation. Therrien’s flaws today could not have been much different than they were in June during the Cup Finals. Shero has worked hard to keep the core of the team together long-term, and has emphasized ‘the bigger picture’ and ‘stability’ when announcing these signings. Therrien deserved the same consideration and in my opinion had earned the right to survive one disappointing season. My understanding is that the Penguins budgeted based on 1 round of playoff revenues, a truly foolish decision if true. There are NO guarantees in sports – injuries, unforeseen events, and just plain bad luck have brought down many a talented team in every sport. Making the playoffs should have been expected but NOT been considered mandatory to financially break even.

What of the rest of the season? Bylsma has been preaching aggressiveness all season and it was evident in the 5-4 win Thursday night – the team played with passion. Of course one would expect that with a new coach – if they have that same intensity in game 10 of the Bylsma regime, then they have a chance. The playoffs are still possible – the bottom of the Eastern conference playoff picture is chock-full of deeply flawed teams – but as I said a few weeks ago, this team isn’t as strong as last year’s squad and Shero should not mortgage the future for the very slim chance of an extended playoff run.

Only time will tell if Therrien’s firing will be remembered as a shortsighted, ill-considered move, a stroke of genius, or something in between. Even if it ‘works’ for this season, short of another Cup final run I’ll maintain it was a bad move, and I hope that the next non-interim Pens coach is given a bit more slack than Therrien was.


Dave Glass lives in Clearfield with his wife, Suzanne, and their six children. He can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.

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