Only one more game to play in the NFL season, and despite injuries, a tough schedule, and other challenges the Steelers are the favorites to bring home the Lombardi trophy. We’ll analyze their matchup with the Arizona Cardinals in-depth next week; this week, we’ll recap the conference championships and as promised we’ll take a look at the Penguins’ disappointing season as they hit the all-star break.
The Arizona Cardinals outscored their opponents by only one point in the regular season. The Cardinals lost four of their last six regular-season games. Arizona went 3-7 outside of their division. They ranked dead last in rush attempts and yards. They allowed 56, 48, 47, 37, and 35 points in losses this season. The Arizona Cardinals outscored their postseason opponents 95-62 and are the NFC representative in the Super Bowl.
Read the previous paragraph and tell me which sentence looks out of place? Nobody saw this coming after week 17. Even the Cards’ fans would have been quite happy with a round 1 upset of the Falcons and a competitive loss to the Panthers in round 2. But in today’s NFL, it seems that the old rules and old advantages are gone. The TMQ article on ESPN.com points out that the 2006 Colts, the 2007 Giants, and the 2008 Cardinals rank 1,2, and 3 on the list of most regular-season points allowed by a Super Bowl team. Each of these teams was flawed in some way during their regular season; each overcame those flaws and dominated their postseason – each had to win three games with no bye week, and each had at least one tough road win. The 2005 Steelers were a more effective regular-season team, but still had to face three road games to make the Super Bowl. Meanwhile, the #1 and #2 seeds, the best teams in the regular season who earned coveted bye weeks for the playoffs, are a combined 10-14 since 2005 with no Super Bowl wins. What’s going on here?
I think the answer cannot be traced to one factor but rather a host of factors. Let’s get the tough one out of the way: luck plays a role. If the Giants and Pats played 10 times last year, the Pats probably win seven or eight at minimum. Likewise the Colts and Steelers in ’05. Having said that, the NFL’s desire to have parity is also clearly a factor – ’08 Lions aside, even bad NFL teams are regularly competitive in games with good teams. A final thought is the way top teams now treat the end of the regular season – I don’t have any definitive proof, but it seems to me that teams that clinch early then rest their stars and play week 17 lightly seem to generally struggle in the postseason. This year the best examples of that are the Titans and Colts, but I recall the Chargers having similar problems in years past. Teams like the Cardinals and Steelers, who played to win in Week 17 despite the lack of meaning in the standings – and the ’07 giants, who played the Pats in week 17 and put up a heack of a fight, seem to carry that type of play forward into the playoffs. Now, there are exceptions – Dungy ALWAYS rested Manning in Week 17 if possible, including in ’06, but I think this has some effect most seasons.
Onto the game recaps: The Cardinals proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that they are a good team, pounding the vaunted Eagle defense with both run and pass. Philly made a gallant comeback and I certainly hope Eagle fans do not hold McNabb responsible for this – they Eagles gained over 400 yards of offense and McNabb led their rally with some brilliant plays. In the AFC, the game went almost exactly the way I scri pted it last week: the defenses both stopped the run, and Flacco made the big mistakes when it counted. Ben did his job and led his team on to the final game. Flacco had a bad game, but again I compare him to Big Ben’s rookie season: a bad playoff game didn’t stunt Ben’s growth as a player and I fully expect Flacco to be a quality QB for the Ravens for years to come. Hopefully, as he matures the rest of the team degrades – if the Ravens maintain their stellar defense AND add a top offense, they will truly be the class of the division.
Now, on to the NHL, where the Pittsburgh Penguins are enduring a very frustrating season. After 47 games, the Penguins are 23-21-4 and would miss the playoffs if the season ended this week. The Pens have had a variety of problems – some weeks they struggle to score, others they struggle to prevent scoring; some games they can’t kill penalties, others (including many lately) their power play is a disaster. Through it all, though, I think there are two overriding factors contributing to their sub-par play: injuries and their Stanley Cup final run last season.
Top defenseman Sergei Gonchar has missed the entire season with a shoulder injury, which required surgery in October. Ryan Whitney missed almost 3 months and is only recently back. Marc-Andre’ Fleury missed a month with a groin strain, and struggled to regain his form. Dupuis, Talbot, Zigomanis, Orpik, Fedotenko, Kennedy, Gill, and lately even Sidney Crosby have all suffered injuries that caused them to miss time. Worse, the replacements from Wilkes-Barre have not exactly lit up the scoresheet, and backup goalie Dany Sabourin was so mediocre that the team traded him AND a prospect (Ryan Stone AND a 4th-round draft pick for a 31-year-old backup goalie from Edmonton (Mathieu Garon). Clearly, injuries have been a major factor.
Why do I mention last year’s Cup run? Because I think there’s a negative effect on conditioning and durability when a team endures a long playoff run in the NHL. This isn’t like baseball, where the postseason is only a month long, or football, where even after the Super Bowl players don’t report to training camp for six months. The Penguins finished playing June 6 last season – barely more than 3 months later they reported to a VERY abbreviated training camp, played four exhibition games, then spent a week in Sweden before opening their season there. I believe that between the short layoff over the summer and the unusual preseason due to the Sweden trip, the team was not as well prepared for the season as they needed to be.
As the All-Star break begins, the Pens sit a point out of the playoffs but the really bad news is that they are tied with the Florida Panthers, who have played two fewer games than the Pens. The top of the conference is totally out of reach – they sit 23 points behind Boston – but the division is still fairly even, with New Jersey leading the Pens by 11 points. Here are my keys for the Pens to reach the playoffs:
-Fleury. Simply put, he has to regain his form. Last season he was 19-10-2 with a 2.33 goals-against and a .921 save%. This year he is 15-12-2, 2.83 and .910%. Garon isn’t going to come in and save the day like Ty Conklin did last season – fleury has to be ‘The Man’.
-Win the special teams battle. The Pens’ penalty killing has been mediocre, but the power play has been absolutely brutal at times. Lately they’ve had a lot more great chances, but in their 2-1 loss Tuesday they were only one for six on the power play and didn’t score on a late double-minor. Currently the Pens rank 21st out of 30 on the power play and 23rd on the penalty kill. If they don’t improve into at least the top half of the league they will most likely miss the playoffs. The sooner Gonchar returns, the better; he is one of the best power-play defensemen in the world and his return immediately upgrades the unit.
-Balanced scoring. Malkin leads the league with 70 points and Crosby is #2 with 60; however, the falloff to #3 is steep, as Petr Sykora has 34 points, Miro Satan a disappointing 30, and only two other players have more than 20. Injuries contribute to this problem, for sure, and the Pens do have six players with 10+ goals, but the 3rd and 4th lines simply MUST chip in more on offense for this team to succeed.
-Health. Let’s be honest: the team isn’t as good as last year’s squad, too many good players left via free agency. They have virtually no scoring depth and also no reliable depth at goalie. Any injury to a top-5 forward or to Fleury will likely end the Pens’ chances of making the playoffs. I expect a defenseman to be traded by March, as that is the one area they have depth and there’s a glaring need for a scoring winger – but the team has to hope the worst of the injury bug is behind them now.
Prediction: The Pens will get a bit healthier and in particular Gonchar’s return should be a real spark. Unfortunately, they’ve dug themselves a pretty good hole and I think the division title is very unlikely, much less a top-2 seed like last season. I think the Pens will sneak in to the postseason with the #7 or #8 seed, and they will be a very dangerous foe for the likes of Boston or Washington – but this will not be a team that repeats last season’s success. Hopefully, with a longer offseason and a more traditional training camp (and a few shrewd moves by General Manager Ray Shero) the team will be a true contender again next season, and how soon we forget their great run last season. Enjoy the team and keep expectations low – a playoff berth for this squad is realistically all we can hope for, anything beyond that is gravy.
As an aside, while I supported trading for Marian Hossa last season, I hope that management realizes that this team isn’t the powerhouse that last year’s squad was – this would not be an ideal time to mortgage the future for a playoff run. Better to hold on to their assets and look to 2010.
Dave Glass lives in Clearfield with his wife, Suzanne, and their six children. He can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net