We’re hitting a bit of a lull in the sports world – hockey is really just getting started, baseball is over, we’ve already recapped the NFL season thus far…and if you want NBA analysis/commentary, check out ESPN, they basically become the NBA Network at this time of year. The Eye does not follow the NBA. So, let’s take a look at MLB’s awards – who will win (or has won), who should win, and what the voters (the Baseball Writers Association of America, or BBWAA) SHOULD be looking at. We’ll start with awards already handed out.
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
NL – Awarded to Geovanny Soto. Glass Eye vote: Soto
AL – Awarded to Evan Longoria. Glass Eye vote: Longoria
OK, let’s get the really easy ones out of the way fast. Longoria and Soto collected 59 of a possible 60 first-place votes from the BBWAA. Both stood head and shoulders above an otherwise mediocre rookie crop – Longoria won unanimously even though he missed a month with a broken hand! While the picks here were easy this season, in other seasons voters can (and do) look at the wrong stats and end up with poor selections. I’ll go into this in detail below in the Cy Young and MVP analysis.
MANAGER OF THE YEAR
AL favorite: Rays’ manager Joe Maddon. Glass Eye vote: Maddon
As with the rookies, not much drama here – when you guide a laughingstock franchise that had never won more than 70 games to a 97-win campaign and a playoff berth, you’re going to be manager of the year, and deservedly so. I think 2nd place SHOULD go to the White Sox’ Ozzie Guillen, who is eccentric but usually seems to squeeze more out of his teams than expected. I expect the voters to go the safe route, though, and choose the Angels’ Mike Scioscia #2 based on his 100-win season.
I like to look at context in these situations – did the manager outweigh expectations? How difficult was his division? Was he prone to tactical errors? Did an unusual number of pitchers wear down/get hurt? Again, exempting Maddon here, because the franchise turnaround trumps all that, but looking at Scioscia and Guillen, most of those factors are in Guillen’s favor. Scioscia’s team was expected to breeze to a division title, and in fact the division was so poor that no other team finished above .500. The AL Central was a down-to-the-wire affair, with the Indians and Tigers expected to battle for the flag. The Sox were considered an aging, over-the-hill group that had missed their window of opportunity. Something to keep in mind as we look at the….
NL favorite: Lou Piniella (Cubs). Glass Eye vote: Charlie Manuel (Phillies)
Now, keep in mind that these votes are tallied BEFORE the playoffs, so the World Series run isn’t in Charlie’s favor here. Voters will look at the Cubs’ NL-leading 97 wins, Piniella’s pedigree, and probably give him the nod. That’s defensible, but I go with Manuel for two reasons: better bullpen management, and tougher competition.
The Cubs rode two relievers (Kerry Wood and Carlos Marmol) hard all season, and clearly they were worn out by late September. By contrast, Manuel relied on a 5-deep bullpen with clearly defined roles, which kept everyone fresher for the stretch run. Now, obviously a lot of credit/blame falls on the players – Piniella rode those pitchers because others didn’t perform, while Manuel’s faith in his deep ‘pen was rewarded by excellent performance – but I assign credit to Manuel for taking a chance with some of these relievers and letting them grow into their roles.
As for the competition, I know the NL Central had 3 other winning teams AND the wildcard-winning Brewers, but I consider the Mets the bigger threat. Certainly the Mets have superior talent to the Brewers, Cards, and Astros, but for the second consecutive year the Mets folded down the stretch while the Phillies charged. Again, the players deserve most of the credit/blame, but Manuel deserves credit for keeping the team on an even keel.
CY YOUNG AWARD
NL – Awarded to Tim Lincecum(Giants) Glass Eye vote: Lincecum
Kudos to the voters for seeing past one of the most misleading stats in sports: wins. Tim Lincecum was the best pitcher in the NL this season – 1st in strikeouts (265), 2nd in ERA(2.62), 3rd in innings pitched (227), all at the tender age of 24. I was concerned that voters would see Brandon Webb’s 22 wins and vote for him despite his 3.30 ERA. WINS ARE A FUNCTION OF RUN SUPPORT, NOT NECESSARILY PITCHER EFFECTIVENESS. Johan Santana had a 2.53 ERA in 234 innings for the Mets, a team that won 89 games. Lincecum’s ERA was 2.62 on a team that won 72 games. Webb’s 3.30 ERA was for an 82-win Dback team. Win totals: Santana 16, Lincecum 18, Webb 22. The point is, you have to look past wins to see who the best pitcher is, in fact most times I recommend ignoring wins entirely.
I tend to look at ERA, innings pitched, strikeouts, and WHIP (walks+hits dvided by innings pitched) to determine the best pitcher. Why strikeouts and WHIP? Strikeouts are ‘free’ outs – no defense necessary, so no reliance on teammates. Low-strikeout pitchers are far more reliant on the quality of their defense. WHIP shows both a pitcher’s control and also how many hits they allow, also measurements of a pitcher’s dominance.
AL favorite: Cliff Lee (Indians). Glass Eye vote: Lee
Now here’s a fairly clear-cut case from the voters’ perspective – Lee’s league-leading win total and his great ‘story’ (last season Lee had a 6.29 ERA, and writers love a good comeback) make him a shoo-in for the award. However, for me it’s a fairly close call. Cliff Lee led the AL with a 2.54 ERA, he was 2nd in innings (227) and 2nd in WHIP. The only mark against Lee is his relatively low strikeout total of 170; however, he walked ONLY 34 batters all season and also allowed only 12 home runs (another good indicator). Roy Halladay is a strong choice as well, leading the league in innings and WHIP, finishing 2nd in ERA and 3rd in strikeouts. Close, yes, but I’d give the nod to Lee because of the ERA, walk total, and also I’ll admit that in close calls like this, I too look at the ‘story’.
MVP AWARD
NL favorite: probably Albert Pujols (Cardinals). Glass Eye vote: Pujols
Here’s where it starts getting interesting. Once again, Albert Pujols was the best player in baseball, and frankly it wasn’t all that close this season. He led the NL in Slugging %, OPS (recall that’s on-base plus slugging %), and total bases. He finished second in batting average, on-base%, and walks. He was in the top-5 in hits, doubles, and home runs. Now, voters look at things like RBI, ‘clutch’ hits, and how well the team did. There’s precious little evidence that a player can CONSISTENTLY perform better in clutch situations year-to-year, so I tend to throw out those numbers as flukes. RBI is a totally context-driven stat – it’s all about opportunity, not necessarily hitting skill. As for team performance, I’ll use it as a tiebreaker but I won’t reward a lesser player who happens to be on a better team. My definition of ‘most valuable’ is the player who contributes the most to his team – regardless of the quality of his teammates.
That said, the BBWAA will probably give the award to Pujols because his season was so outrageously good. In other years, a player like Chase Utley would get more consideration and deservedly so; Utley is a heck of a hitter and arguably the best-fielding 2B in the game. Expect Lance Berkman and Hanley Ramirez to also garner votes, but Pujols should be the winner.
AL favorite: I have no clue. Glass Eye vote: Dustin Pedroia (Red Sox)
The AL vote is as muddled as I’ve ever seen it. Carlos Quentin probably was the favorite, until he missed the last month with injuries. Alex Rodriguez had another strong season, but it wasn’t flat-out dominant, and the Yankees’ subpar year will hurt him with the voters. Milton Bradley led the league in OPS and on-base%, but only had 414 at-bats; cross him off. Cliff Lee will garner a few votes, but while he had a great year it wasn’t an historic year, and pitchers don’t win MVP’s without historic numbers. That leaves three main contenders: Pedroia, Joe Mauer (Twins), and Grady Sizemore (Indians).
Sizemore had another good season, with 33 homers and 38 steals to go with a .876 OPS. He also is a plus defender in CF. Again, however, it wasn’t an historically great season, he wasn’t among the league leaders in any big category, and the Indians underachieved. So I think it’s really going to come down to Mauer vs. Pedroia. This is a VERY close call – Mauer led the AL with a .328 average, was 2nd in the AL with a .413 on-base%, and is generally regarded as one of the best defensive catchers in the game. Moreover, his team came out of nowhere to contend for the division, which will garner him some extra votes with the BBWAA. On the negative side, he hit only 9 home runs and 44 total extra-base hits – generally not MVP-type power.
Pedroia finished 2nd in batting with a .326 average, led the league in hits (213) and doubles (54), and threw in 17 HRs and 20 steals to boot. On the negative side, he’s regarded as a good-not-great defender, and he wasn’t among the league leaders in OPS.
So why Pedroia? Power and speed, mainly – both hit for good average and draw walks, and I think Mauer’s defensive advantage is cancelled out by Pedroia appearing in more games (157 to 146). In a race this close, the steals and homers matter, so I’ll give it to Pedroia by the SMALLEST of margins – and keep in mind, had Bradley or Quentin played the entire season they’d most likely have won my vote, regardless of team performance.
***Late breaking news: I started this article Tuesday and finished it Wednesday. In the meantime, the Penguins played the Red Wings Tuesday night, and the game was one of the most entertaining, exciting, dramatic games I’ve ever seen. If you missed it, shame on you for six weeks! The game is scheduled to re-air Wednesday at 5:00 on Versus, and Saturday at 2 PM on the NHL Network. Trust me, it’s worth your time to watch this game. If you miss that, at LEAST try to catch highlights on SportsCenter (or the NHL Network if you get it).