A little bit better showing for the Eye in the last round – both teams I picked are in the World Series. Now, before we go on, ask yourself: what kind of odds would you have given in March on a Tampa-Philly World Series matchup? Regardless of how this ends, both teams have shown amazing resilience all season long, and while I like Boston, it’s nice to see two teams meeting that have almost no winning tradition. We’ll review how each team won, then go over what to look for in the Series, with a prediction of course.
In the NL, don’t let the 4 games to 1 game total deceive you – this series was tight. Philadephia scored 25 runs, the Dodgers 20; Philadelphia posted a .743 OPS (remember from earlier articles, OPS is on-base% plus slugging%, a good basic indicator of offensive success), while LA posted a slightly higher .751 OPS. Now, Jamie Moyer’s horrible start in Philly’s only loss accounts for a lot of this, but the fact is that Philly got only two good starts in the series and both were made by Cole Hamels (1.93 ERA in 14 innings). The offense relied on timely hitting (such as Matt Stairs’ huge pinch-hit HR), and unlikely sources such as pitcher Brett Myers (can you believe he went 3 for 3?? He had 4 hits ALL SEASON before that, batting .069!) and C Carlos Ruiz, who hit only .219 in the regular season but produced several crucial hits against LA.. But the REAL difference between the teams was the bullpen. The Phillies’ top four relievers combined for 13 innings, 6 hits, ZERO runs, 7 walks, 13 strikeouts; the Dodgers’ top relievers were not nearly as dependable. Philly advanced, but sooner or later they need their top hitters to perform, and they need someone besides Hamels to step up in the rotation.
In the AL, I learned one lesson once and for all: momentum in baseball is today’s starting pitcher. If EVER momentum would affect a series, this was it: Boston had a huge, 7-run comeback in only 3 innings in game 5; a hard-fought win in game 6 behind an injured starter; and their best starter set to go in game 7. Tampa’s Matt Garza had other plans, however, as he completely stymied the Sox’ attack after allowing a solo HR in the 1st. ** Tampa hit for a TON of power against Boston (16 HRs in 7 games) and got good work from their starters, but their bullpen was quite shaky until game 7. Can Tampa solve their bullpen woes? That is a big question that will loom over the World Series.
**Remember this the next time someone claims that one baseball game will give a team ‘momentum’ – every day really is a new game, and a great effort from a starter makes yesterday irrelevant. We all remember Fisk’s big homer in game 6 of the ’75 series – but Cincy won game 7. In 1992 the Pirates seemingly had momentum against the Braves after being down 3 games to 1, and took a lead into the 9th inning of game 7 – and lost. I firmly believe that whether a team comes back from a series deficit is not based on yesterday’s result – what happens in each game is independent of the rest of the series.
Let’s look at some keys for each team going forward.
Keys for Philadelphia:
-Keep the ball in the park.
Tampa has proven that they can explode on offense through the longball, and Philly has a flyball staff and a homer-happy home ballpark. The onus will be on the pitching staff to keep Tampa in the park – if Tampa is generating their offense through singles and doubles, Philly has a great chance.
-Hamels has to be Hamels, but another starter has to step up.
Cole Hamels needs at least one dominant start, and possibly two. If Philly loses both of his starts they are in serious trouble. On paper, the Tampa rotation is deeper than Philly’s and with Moyer’s postseason struggles this seems even more apparent. Myers or Blanton need to step up with a big start to take some pressure off of Hamels and the bullpen.
-Howard needs to get hot.
Ryan Howard did almost nothing against Milwaukee in round 1, but got hot late in the LCS and ended up 6 for 20 against the Dodgers. The problem is he has 2 doubles and no home runs in 9 postseason games – with 48 regular season home runs, Howard has to find the power stroke. Howard is notoriously streaky, and he needs to hit a hot streak to jump-start Philly’s offense. Last round’s unexpected heroics from the likes of Stairs, Myers, and Ruiz cannot be counted on again – the big guns need to step up for Philadelphia.
Keys for Tampa Bay:
-The bullpen, particularly David Price.
Manager Joe Maddon had a lot of success mixing and matching his bullpen in the regular season, but his assortment of journeymen ran into a LOT of trouble against Boston. When it got down to cases, Maddon turned to young lefty David Price, the team’s #1 draft pick in 2007. Price has a huge fastball (95+) and a good slider, but was more or less untested ad the major-league level until Maddon called on him to save game 7. The gamble worked – Price’s stuff was electric and he seemed completely unfazed by the magnitude of the moment. Has Maddon found a relief ace for the Series, or will he go back to what worked in the regular season? Even if he DOES go with Price, will the kid come through? How many appearances will Tampa’s management allow him to have? To my mind, Price is very much a key to this series. None of Tampa’s other relievers is good enough to mow the Phillies down, so Maddon will have to play matchups with them. If Price is the real deal, Maddon can shorten the game and let Price handle the ninth. As for the workload concerns – flags fly forever. I’m all for protecting young pitchers, but in this situation you have to go for broke and risk the injury for the shot at the title.
-Keep the power on.
As mentioned, Tampa Bay has hit for plenty of power in the postseason, and that will need to continue to best Philly. You have to expect the Phillies to do a lot of what they’ve done all year long- hit home runs aplenty (they hit 214 in the regular season, the Rays hit 180). The Rays appear to be as healthy as they have been all season on offense, and they will likely get into at least one slugfest with the powerful Phillies – if they can win a high-scoring game, their edge in starting pitching could prove decisive in other games.
-Hit Hamels.
As we discussed in previous columns, Tampa was much more vulnerable to lefty pitching this season, and Cole Hamels absolutely mowed down right-handed batters all year. Tampa was able to beat on Jon Lester in game 3 of the LCS, and he didn’t completely dominate them in game 7 either (3 runs in seven innings). They’ll need a similar performance against Hamels – if he gets two wins in the series, the Rays will have a hard time winning 4 of the other 5 games.
So, prediction time – this seems like it should be a very hard-fought, close series. Philly isn’t at as much of a disadvantage in the AL park as other NL teams have been; in Geoff Jenkins and (especially) Matt Stairs, they have ideal players to fill that role vs. right-handers. Philly also has been an excellent road team all season and the Rays were under .500 on the road, so I think the pressure is really on the Rays to get two wins at home early. The Rays have proven they are for real, and if they continue to hit for power they will be hard to beat. However, the Phillies are well-rested, they have the best pitcher left in Hamels, and a better bullpen. With all of that in mind, I’m taking the PHILLIES IN SIX – should be a great series to watch!