Well, looking at my predictions I’d guess you have to ask – at 2 of 4 correct, is the Glass half full or half empty? As I said last week, predicting these short series is really a fool’s errand, literally any result is possible – but let’s take a crack at predicting the League Championship Series, after a quick recap of the Division Series.
In the NL, the Phillies-Brewers matchup played out about as I expected, except the Phils got to Sabathia in Game 2 rather than Game 5. Cole Hamels was flat-out dominant for Philly, but Brett Myers and Joe Blanton were also effective. The Phillies won the series despite almost no offense from Chase Utley and Ryan Howard – they will need a more balanced attack to get by the Dodgers.
LA, meanwhile, totally dominated the Cubs, outscoring them 20-6. The key was pitcher control (or batter patience, your choice): LA drew 14 walks in the 3-game sweep, while Chicago drew only 6. Manny Ramirez continued his late-season surge, hitting .500 (5 for 10) with 4 walks and two home runs. The Cubs, meanwhile, made some questionable pitching choices, starting Ryan Dempster over Ted Lilly and not pushing Zambrano back to Game 3. Lilly was arguably the Cubs’ best starter down the stretch, yet he never appeared in the series. With Zambrano’s injury concerns, I would have pushed him back, started Harden and Lilly in Games 1 and 2 and used Dempster in long relief. The Cubs still have a great core group of players and are definitely the odds-on favorite to win the NL Central next year, but the fans are getting impatient with these October collapses.
In the AL, the Rays made relatively short work of the White Sox, with only John Danks’ impressive work in Game 3 avoiding a sweep for Chicago. As predicted, Chicago hit four home runs but did very little else on offense, compiling a poor .660 OPS and only scoring 13 runs. Credit the Rays’ pitchers as well, clearly the young Tampa staff was not intimidated by the postseason limelight. On offense, the Rays pounded out 41 hits including 6 home runs – their challenge will be to duplicate this against a superior Red Sox squad.
Speaking of the other Sox, Anaheim did split their road games but lost both their home dates. Despite the 3-1 series win, this could have easily gone the other way, as every game was tied or a 1-run lead going into the 9th inning. Jason Bay was the offensive star for the Sox, hitting .412 with an .882 OPS for the series. The Sox bullpen, especially Papelbon, Delcamen, and Masterson, overcame shaky starts from Matsuzaka and Beckett. Anaheim displayed some shaky defense and questionable baserunning, as well as a leaky bullpen. If the Angels lose Teixeira to free agency it may cause them to slide back to the pack – their offense simply isn’t potent enough to withstand the loss of that bat. Enough looking back, on to the next round…
Boston vs. Tampa Bay:
The key issue in this series to me is health. Tampa has it, Boston does not. Boston is missing their starting 3B, Mike Lowell, with a hip problem. J.D. Drew is fighting a bad back but playing through it, and Josh Beckett started last round but clearly wasn’t 100%. He was pushed back due to an oblique muscle injury but gave up 9 hits and 4 walks in 5 innings in Game 3. Daisuke Matsuzaka was his usual inconsistent self, giving up 8 hits and 3 walks in 5 innings (despite going 18-3, Matsuzaka threw only 168 innings in 29 starts, an extremely low number). Jon Lester was dominant in his two starts, but the Sox need good work from other members of the rotation to get by the Rays. Francona has already made a slight tactical error in my opinion – he has announced his rotation, and Jon Lester is slated to start games 3 and 7, with Beckett going in games 2 and 6, Matsuzaka in games 1 and 5 (Tim Wakefield gets Game 4). This will give Boston’s best pitcher only 1 start if the series goes less than 7 games, and also gives Beckett less time to heal – I would have switched their positions in the rotation.
Tampa has no such issues, they have a 4-deep rotation and a bullpen that gave up only 5 hits and 1 run in 11 innings last round. If Scott Kazmir can keep his walks and pitch count down, he can match Lester’s dominance, and the other three starters (Matt Garza, James Shields, and Andy Sonnanstine) are quality right-handers with great control. Boston will not be able to draw their usual number of walks and will have to be a bit more aggressive at the plate. Given the injury concerns, and the fact that Tampa’s staff was better than Boston’s in the regular season (3.82 ERA to 4.01), I’m giving Tampa the pitching edge here.
On offense, the Rays trailed Boston in offense by 70 runs during the season, a sizeable sum, and Boston won last round with almost no production from the top of their order (Pedroia, Ortiz, and Youkilis went a combined 9 for 52 with no HRs) – they figure to get more offense this round from that trio. Lowell’s injury forces Youkilis to 3B and probably puts Mark Kotsay at 1B, a move which may improve their defense but will certainly weaken the offense a bit. If Drew’s back acts up again that would REALLY hurt this lineup, they have no one to replace his combination of power and patience.
Tampa was as patient as Boston this season, and actually hit more home runs, but they hit for a lower average (.260 to .280) and far less doubles (353 to 284). However, Boston’s Green Monster may factor into that – it is comparatively easy to hit doubles at Fenway. Tampa has a fairly balanced lineup, however they did hit significantly lower vs. LHP. Boston only has 1 lefty starter, so this will not be a huge advantage for Boston (ANOTHER reason to start Lester in Game 2, by the way). Tampa has a balanced lineup, but they are VERY strikeout-prone (1226 in the regular season, second only to Cleveland), and this could give them problems against the Sox’ collection of power arms. Overall I think the offense breaks about even, again due to the Sox’ injury issues.
Defensively both these clubs are very solid, and both managers seem to know what they’re doing. You’ll hear a lot of talk about the Sox’ postseason experience as a factor – DON’T BUY IT. There’s no proven correlation between postseason experience and postseason success – one need only look at the Rockies last year or the Tigers in 2006 to see that young/inexperienced teams can win in October. Since I can’t find any intangibles that balance this out, I’ll take the RAYS IN SIX on the strength of their pitching.
Los Angeles vs. Philadelphia:
This is a REALLY hard series to figure out, because the regular-season numbers mean so little for the Dodgers. With Manny and Furcal, the offense is far more robust than it was for most of the summer, a fact I (and most other observers) overlooked when dismissing their chances against the Cubbies. On the other hand, I don’t believe they are quite the juggernaut they appeared to be last round – I’ll say it again, ANYTHING can happen over a short series.
What we CAN draw from the regular season, however, is an idea of where each teams stands on pitching and defense. The Dodgers led the league in ERA – not a huge surprise; their park is among the most pitcher-friendly in baseball. However, Philly ended up 4th in ERA, at 3.88, in a park that is very much a home run park. Clearly much of LA’s pitching greatness stems from their home park – they had a home ERA of 3.01, but a road ERA of 4.38. The Phillies split was 3.65 home (simply outstanding in that park), 4.13 road (3rd in the league). These facts go a long way towards explaining why both teams went 48-33 at home, but LA only went 36-45 on the road – while Philly had the best road record in the NL at 44-37. LA has a deep starting rotation but no one at the ‘ace’ level of Cole Hamels, and their bullpen has taken a hit with the injury and subsequent ineffectiveness of Takashi Saito. The Phillies have Hamels, plus three other effective starters and a bullpen that runs 4-deep. Between the depth issues LA has in the pen and their home-road issues, and with Philly having home-field advantage the pitching matchup is definitely in the Phils’ favor.
Looking at the offenses, Manny Ramirez and Rafael Furcal are keys for the Dodgers – if they slump now, LA will be in trouble. LA has some other good complementary hitters and a very balanced lineup, but no tremendous power threats. The Phillies, meanwhile, boast power up and down their lineup, but large holes on offense at 3B and C. The key hitters for the Phils in this series are Chase Utley and Ryan Howard – LA’s top 3 starters are right-handers and Howard hits righties MUCH better than lefties (.967 OPS vs. RHP, .745 vs. LHP). Howard and Utley both struggled mightily in the LDS, and the team will not be able to win if they don’t break out of their slumps.
Overall the offenses look pretty even – the Dodgers feature more balance and a doubles-contact style of offense, while the Phillies play to their park and have big-time power but holes in the lineup.
So who wins? LA showed me something last round – short series or not, they took it to the Cubs in a way I didn’t really think was possible. I think this should be a dandy series, but I think that LA’s road woes will hurt them here, and Cole Hamels is the real deal. In a tough, back-and-forth series, I’ll take the PHILLIES IN SEVEN – but this time it won’t shock me if it goes the other way.
Dave Glass live in Clearfield with his wife and six children. He can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.