As mentioned in my last column, the Pens open their season 10/4 in Stockholm, Sweden against the Ottawa Senators. They play again there Sunday before flying home and recovering for their home opener Oct. 11 vs. the Devils. Coming off their spectacular run to the Stanley Cup Finals, what should we expect this season? I’ll look at the team by position, discuss key additions and losses, and forecast their final point tally.
Key losses: Ryan Malone (free agent – Tampa Bay), Marian Hossa (FA – Detroit)Gary Roberts (FA – Tampa), Georges Laraque (FA – Montreal), Jarkko Ruutu (FA – Ottawa)
Key additions: Miroslav Satan (FA – Islanders), Ruslan Fedotenko (FA – Islanders), Janne Pesonen (FA – Europe), Matt Cooke (FA – Washington), Eric Godard (FA – Calgary)
The loss of Malone could hurt the worst; he had a breakout year in ’07-’08 with 27 goals, and was a leader in the dressing room. Having said that, he only scored 51 points in 77 games while playing with Malkin and Crosby. I think that productivity can be replaced by Satan, who has 337 career goals while never playing with a center of Crosby’s caliber. The clubhouse leadership void will probably be replaced by Crosby and Max Talbot.
The loss of Hossa really stings – to sign with Detroit is bad enough, to sign on a 1-year deal really makes it hurt. Clearly he didn’t leave for monetary reasons (Pittsburgh would have matched the offer had they been given the chance, and in fact they made him a lucrative multiyear offer), he left because he believes Detroit gives him the best chance to win the Cup. His acquisition late last season propelled the Penguins to another level, and his two-way play will be very difficult to replace.
As for the other losses, Roberts is 42 and can hardly be counted on to be healthy; Laraque is a premier fighter but his role will be capably filled by fellow heavyweight Godard; and Ruutu’s pesty style belies the fact that he scored 32 points in 152 games for Pittsburgh – he just doesn’t contribute on offense.
As mentioned, Satan is forecast to skate on Crosby’s wing and is a great bet to score 25-35 goals there. Pesonen will start the year in Wilkes-Barre, but I expect him to be a solid contributor before long. Jordan Staal is now in his 3rd year and after some offensive regression last year, he will be expected to produce 20-30 goals for the Pens this season, while playing his usual stellar defense.
Pittsburgh has plenty of 3rd- and 4th-line grinders and checkers, both on the club and in Wilkes-Barre, led by Max Talbot. The gritty center plays a solid 2-way game and is a leader on the club. Jeff Taffe, Pascal Dupuis, and Matt Cooke also provide solid defensive work and grit. The real question is scoring depth – as long as Crosby, Malkin, Sykora, and Satan are healthy the team should score plenty, but another injury such as Crosby’s high ankle sprain last season may severaly damage the season this time around.
Overall the forwards have excellent depth in the 3rd and 4th lines and great front-line scoring talent in Crosby and Malkin, but health is more important than last season.
DEFENSEMEN
Key losses: Sergei Gonchar (dislocated shoulder; out 4-6 months); Ryan Whitney (foot surgery; out 2-3 months)
Key additions: none
The Penguins’ defensive depth is about to be tested, as their top two offensive defensemen are going to miss significant time with injuries. Gonchar was injured in the first preseason game and chose to have surgery, making his best-case return February. Ryan Whitney played with a damaged foot all last seaosn and had it repaired over the summer; he should come back more effective but his return date is still up in the air. In their absence, promising youngsters Kris Letang and Alex Goligoski are expected to step up and produce points from the blueline. Clearly they will not replace Gonchar’s numbers (Gonchar was second in the league in defenseman scoring last season), but if they can produce on the power play and chip in the occasional goal that will be enough for the team.
Pittsburgh is well-stocked with rugged defensive defensemen – the team returns Hal Gill, Brooks Orpik, Mark Eaton, Daryl Sydor, and Rob Scuderi from last year’s impressive squad. All know Coach Therrien’s system well and made very few mistakes the last half of the season. Eaton has missed significant time the past two seasons due to injury, he hopes to log a full season of work for the first time in a Pens sweater. The key to this group, though, is Orpik. He is one of the fiercest hitters int he league and brings an important intimidation factor, as well as solid skating. He doesn;t score, but his cotributions are vital for this team.
Overall the defense should play well in its own end and has some depth – the question is, can anyone come even close to replacing Whitney and Gonchar in the offensive zone.
GOALTENDING
Key losses: Ty Conklin (FA – Detroit)
Key additions: none
It’s all about Marc-Andre’ Fleury here – fresh off a great run in the playoffs, and with a new 7-year contract in hand, Fleury has to continue the stellar play he showed last spring. Conklin saved the Pens’ season when Fleury sprained his ankle, but he decided to move on to Detroit as well, leaving only Dany Sabourin and untested rookie John Curry to back up Fleury.
The belief here is Fleury’s health is key to the season. If he’s healthy, I fully expect him to shine most of the season and into the playoffs. If he goes down, however, I have NO confidence in Sabourin’s ability to carry the team through a series, and while Curry looked great with Wilkes-Barre last season the jury is most definitely still out on him. More than any player, even Crosby or Malkin, Fleury HAS to stay healthy or the team will likely miss the playoffs.
COACHING
Head coach Michel Therrien has completely turned this franchise around with a no-nonsense, disciplined style of play and accountability that was sorely lacking for years in the Pens’ dressing room. He was rewarded with a contract extension over the summer, and the fact that so many players re-signed with Pittsburgh (especially Orpik, who has been in Therrien’s doghouse a few times) indicates the players know his style equates with success and they respect him. The Pneguins used to win in spite of their coaching; now, Therrien and his staff add to the team’s formidable array of talent and GM Ray Shero made the right move in retaining him.
OUTLOOK
The team has gotten off to relatively slow starts the last two seasons – they were 11-12-2 on Dec. 1 last season and 15-15-6 as late as Dec. 27 the year before. Both season,s the team went on late-season tears to finish comfortably in the playoffs. Is that a trend, or coincidence? Is the late-season charge a repeatable feat, or will a slow start this season come back to bite the team? The schedule is very odd this year – long homestands and long stretches of road games, and about 15 sets of back-to-back games.
My guess is the team will struggle a bit at first as new players adapt to Therrien’s system and the young defensemen adapt to their larger roles – however, I expect them to be wekk over .500 going into January this year. The lack of depth is a concern, and I think their late-season kick will depend on how quickly (and effectively) Whitney and Gonchar return, the health of other key players, and if Shero has any more dramatic trade upgrades up his sleeve. The Atlantic looks to be down a bit but remains a very rugged division. There will be some bumps in the road along the way, especially early on – and 100 points may be out of reach with the injuries, but I will predict 95-99 points and another division title for the Pens.
The games today and tomorrow will be shown at 2:30PM each day on FSN Pittsburgh; check them out if you get a chance, to get your own read on how the new pieces mesh.
Dave Glass lives in Clearfield with his wife, Suzanne, and their six children. He can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.