After a gander around the NFC last time, let’s look at the AFC. As before, I’ll predict each team’s record, then talk a bit about the team – with a more detailed analysis of the Steelers, of course.
AFC West
Denver(8-8): Ever since losing to Pittsburgh in the 2005 AFC Championship, the Broncos have been very mediocre, going 16-16 the past 2 seasons. Only the relative weakness of their division and schedule keeps them around .500 this season – they have an inexperienced o-line, a QB fighting the effects of diabetes, and top WR Brandon Marshall has been suspended for the start of the season. If Denver manages to win 10+ games, maybe coach Mike Shanahan really is the genius he thinks he is.
Kansas City(4-12): It’s rebuild time in KC, as the trade of top DE Jared Allen shows. KC had a ton of draft picks and early returns are promising, but they are thin at all the key positions and they don’t really have a NFL-caliber QB. Larry Johnson is in for another frustrating season as the Chiefs’ RB, facing stacked defenses all season long.
Oakland(7-9): I’m not entirely sure why I think Oakland will win 7 games this season. They have the 3rd-easiest schedule in the league (based on opponents’ win % last season), and I like their young coach, Lane Kiffin, but this is a team that hasn’t won more than 5 games in a season since 2002. Still, SOMEONE has to win some games in the AFC West, and with their cupcake schedule I believe Oakland will grab a few cheap wins and achieve their best record since their Super Bowl appearance 6 years ago.
San Diego(14-2): Speaking of cupcake schedules…the Chargers have the 2nd-easiest schedule in the league. I bring this up because while the NFC schedule strengths were all kind of centralized, the AFC schedule strengths are VERY disparate. Example: the Steelers and Colts have the hardest schedules, with opponent win%’s of .598 and .594, while the Chargers and Patriots have the easiest at .422 and .387. That’s a HUGE difference, and it means the difference between 9-10 wins and 12-14 for a good team. (We’ll revisit these schedule disparities with the teams mentioned). San Diego isn’t fundamentally any better in my mind than last season, and in fact they may be a notch worse without top RB backup Michael Turner to spell all-world RB LaDanian Tomlinson. Still, their division is a joke, their schedule is easy, and anything less than 12 wins should be considered a disappointment.
AFC South
Houston(9-7): After a big step forward last season to 8-8, look for the Texans to continue their slow climb towards the playoffs this season. Like the Colts, the Texans face a daunting schedule against the North divisions, but with emerging depth at RB and a good year from QB Matt Schaub, I think the Texans set a franchise-high for wins this season. The Texans long were maligned for neglecting both lines, but they now are solid in the trenches on both sides of the ball, and that will keep them in many games.
Indianapolis(10-6): at MIN, at GB, NE, at PIT, at SD, at CLE. That’s the lion’s share of Indy’s non-division schedule. Add in division games against the powerful Jaguars and the improving Texans, and you can see that 10 wins may be hard to come by. Frankly, I think 10 wins is upper-end – with the uncertainty surrounding Manning’s health, the age of Marvin Harrison, and the lack of depth on defense, the Colts look primed for a fall to me. I’m going with 10 wins because if Manning’s healthy, he seems to will this team into the playoffs – but 12-4 would shock me a lot more than 7-9 would.
Jacksonville(11-5): Tough defense, persistent ground attack, keep QB mistakes to a minimum, fiery coach. Sound familiar? The Jags successfully emulated the Cowher Steelers of the mid-90’s in 2007 and look to be a real contender again this season. The two factors working against them are schedule and regression. Schedule you know – like Indy and Houston, they have one of the hardest schedules in the league. As for regression, QB David Garrard only threw 3 INTs all last season – that number will likely triple this season, it’s just not a repeatable feat. Sooner or later RB Fred Taylor will show his age as well, and then the question will be can Maurice Jones-Drew handle the load as the #1 back? I think these factors will keep the Jags from 12+ wins, but even at that they will be a super Bowl contender.
Tennessee(5-11): In this division, something has to give, and when in doubt I pick on the team that has QB issues. Vince Young is an amazing athlete. He also threw 9 TDs against 17 INTs last season. If those numbers don’t at least even out, the Titans are doomed. I also don’t understand their draft strategy, this is the 3rd straight year they took a RB in the first round. They had needs at CB, WR, and on the line. In any case, Young has to prove to me that he can actually play the positions in the NFL before I believe in this team again.
AFC East
Buffalo(7-9): Yes, they went 7-9 in 206 and 2007, but I don’t see this team going anywhere. They remind me of the Pirates: enough talent to be competitive, not nearly enough to be a contender. Their schedule is fairly easy, but with their inconsistent QB play and now with a home schedule split between Buffalo and Toronto, I can’t see them making a big move this season.
Miami(5-11): There will be progress in Year 2 of the Tuna Plan, and having a decent QB in Chad Pennington will help, but this team is still a ways off from being a winner. 2010 is their expected arrival date.
New England(14-2): So, a team goes 16-0 and gets the EASIEST SCHEDULE in the league? I know the formula sets the matchups, but it still seems unfair. The Pats have three tough away games: SD, Indy, and Seattle. Their toughest home date is Pittsburgh. I figure they lose 1 of those 4, plus a surprise loss (they’re due for one of those) but given their talent level and their cupcake schedule, 12 wins is about the minimum – UNLESS Brady’s injury is worse than it appears. If he goes down, anything’s possible.
New York Jets(8-8): well, let’s see, they went 10-6 2 seasons ago, then 4-12 last season. They had 2 first-round draft picks, and on talent they should return to .500 this season. They have a mess at QB with Clemens and Pennington, but…wait..what’s that I hear in New York? ….FAVREFAVREFAVREFAVREFAVREFAVREFAVREFAVREFAVREFAVREFAVREFAVREFAVREfarvefavrefavrefavrefavrefavrefavrefavre
..oh yeah, they traded for some 38-year-old QB who can’t decide if he wants to retire or not. I’m sure they’re better than the Pats, Steelers, Colts, Chargers, and Jags now! Print the playoff tickets now, folks, #4 can do it all! He’s invulnerable, throws laser passes, and has that ‘will to win’!!*
*Of course, in 2005 and 2006 he threw 47 INTs and only 38 TDs, and had the worst passer ratings of his career. Green Bay also had vastly superior receivers than the Jets, and a much better defense. But hey, why throw water on the ball of fire that is Jets Nation? Let them dream of that 12-4 season until weeks 2 and 3, when they get hammered by New England and San Diego.
AFC North
Baltimore(7-9): Again I go with the ‘worst QB’ theory. Yes, the Ravens still can play defense, yes I like the head coaching change, but Joe Flacco isn’t ready and Kyle Boller isn’t the answer. With a very tough schedule, the Ravens will show flashes but fall short again.
Cincinnati(4-12): Here’s a team with a great QB…and seemingly nothing else. Their defense is a mess, they constantly have players in trouble with the law, their best WR wants out of town and now is injured, and they have no proven running backs. So yes, while Carson Palmer is a great QB, you still need other good players. Dan Marino had losing seasons too, and I expect to see Palmer lashing out at his teammates like Marino did late in his career.
Cleveland (8-8): Everyone is on the Browns’ bandwagon, and make no mistake, they are a team on the rise. HOWEVER, a few cautionary tales: 1.)most teams that come out of nowhere like Cleveland ’07 usually take a step back the following year; 2.) Ditto for QBs that come out of nowhere to be great, like Derek Anderson – expect regression this season; 3.) While they have great weapons at WR, TE, and a stout offensive line, they depend on an aging RB in Jamal Lewis and I’m not at all convinced their defensive back seven is that great; 4.) Yes, they have a very tough schedule, especially at the beginning (DAL, PIT, @BAL) and the end (IND,@TEN,@PHI, CIN, @PIT). I don’t see anyone in the division going over 10 wins, and with the regression mentioned above I think it’s a mediocre year in Cleveland.
Pittsburgh(10-6): The toughest schedule in football, and the toughest in the last 10 years. Look at this run in the middle of the season: @JAX, @CIN, NYG, @WAS, IND, SD, CIN, @NE, DAL, @BAL. It doesn’t take much analysis to see that 6-4 would be a good record with that slate. I think a realistic goal for the team is 5-1 in the division, 5-5 in all other games. There really isn’t a ‘gimme’ game outside of the division for Pittsburgh this season.
Looking at the personnel, the Steelers drafted RB Rashard Mendenhall to complement Willie Parker. They drafted WR Limas Sweed in rd 2 to hopefully be Hines Ward’s eventual replacement. They acquired Justin Hartwig to take over at center for struggling Sean Mahan, and 2007 draftees Lawrence Timmons and LaMarr Woodley will see significant playing time at LB this season.
Still, they keys to the season are line play on both sides of the ball and health, especially Big Ben’s health. Late last season the Steelers had key injuries along both lines and that was a major factor in their 1-4 finish. The Steelers appear to have solid starting talent but a lack of depth along the lines, making health crucial there. QB Ben Roethlisberger appears set to take his place among the game’s elite QBs – if he can stay on the field. Last season Ben threw 32 TDs against only 11 INTs, but as usual he missed a game due to injury and had nagging ailments most of the season. If he stays on the field, the Steelers should win plenty. Should he go down, the Steelers may be in trouble – veteran backup Charlie Batch broke his collarbone, forcing the team to sign Byron Leftwich for depth. The dropoff from Ben to Leftwich or rookie Dennis Dixon figures to be severe, and even a 1-game absence could mean the difference between playoffs and also-ran status for this Steeler squad.
Now, for the REALLY crazy predictions: the NFC will send Carolina to the Super Bowl, where they will meet the San Diego Chargers. Chargers win behind a huge game from LaDanian Tomlinson. As always, we’ll check back after the season to see how we did.
If anyone thinks they can prognosticate more accurately, send me your Super Bowl picks by 9/3 and at the end of the season I’ll post the most accurate predictions, and publish your preseason picks next season as well!
Dave Glass lives in Clearfield with his wife, Suzanne, and their six children. He can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net .