Last week, we looked at the various NL races and contenders – this week let’s take a stroll around the AL standings and see what’s happening. We’ll start out west this time.
In the AL West, the picture is crystal-clear after Oakland’s ‘white-flag’ trades the past few weeks: the Angels will win this division going away. Oakland had scheduled this to be a rebuilding year, but thanks to surprising pitching had remained on the periphery of the race through the all-star break. Right before the break, however, they traded their best pitcher, talented but oft-injured Rich Harden to the Cubs. This past week they traded workhorse inning-eater Joe Blanton to the Phillies. Both trades further bolster an already-deep farm system, but they all but ended the ’08 season for Oakland. While it takes guts to throw in the towel after a hot start, GM Billy Beane knows that he’s forgoing a slim postseason shot this year for another run of excellence in the next 4-5 years. With the depth he’s building in the farm system, Oakland looks to be a major force down the road. Neal Huntingdon, take note, because your Pirates HAVE to make similar trades in the next week. The Angels have strong starting pitching and a deep bullpen, but a problematic offense that is prone to slumps. The Angels will cruise into the playoffs but need a healthy Vlad Guerrero and Howie Kendrick to have a strong run in October.
Amongst the also-rans in the division, Texas is trending up while Seattle is trending WAY down. Texas made major trades last year and effectively rebuilt their farm system. Look for more of the same this season, as they have several outfielders having strong seasons, and a lot of depth at catcher. Seattle, on the other hand, misread their situation, thinking last winter that they were a contender and trading young talent away to take a run at the flag. That move was ill-advised, as they have the worst record in the AL at 38-63, a new GM, a new manager, an old lineup, and a farm system almost bereft of talent. This rebuild will take awhile thanks to ex-GM Bill Bavasi’s shortsightedness.
In the AL Central, the surprising Chicago White Sox have led pretty much wire-to-wire, using a formula similar to their Series-winning ’05 squad: good starting pitching, a deep bullpen, and lots and lots of homers. The ChiSox easily pace the AL in homers with 138. This race is getting closer, but I look for Chicago to close the deal and make the playoffs. Minnesota is their closest chaser, now only 2.5 games back, but the Twins have been doing it with smoke and mirrors – they have hit only 69 home runs, the lowest figure in the league, and their team ERA of 4.31 is the highest of any AL contender except Detroit (more on them in a minute). Minnesota DOES have an ace in the hole, literally, with ace pitcher Francisco Liriano recovering from elbow surgery in AAA. Reports are Liriano is ready to be called up, which might even the race; still, I think that will only offset the decline from the Twins’ offense. The dark horse in this race is preseason favorite Detroit. The Tigers have recovered from a miserable start and are now 5.5 games behind Chicago. The problem for Detroit is that while they have a very potent offense, they have issues in their rotation. Jeremy Bonderman is gone for the year, and while Justin Verlander has recently rounded into form the team simply doesn’t have the pitching depth Chicago does. The Tigers and Sox meet this weekend in a crucial 3-game set in Detroit; anything less than 2 wins for the Tigers will make it very hard for them to play in October.
Amongst the other Central teams, it’s wait ’till next year again. The Indians were also expected to contend, but injuries and poor performance on offense doomed them early. The KC Royals are still building from within, and they have some good players on the rise in P Zack Grienke and 3B Alex Gordon, but they look to be at least 2-3 years away from serious contention.
And so we turn our attention to the Juggernaut Division, the AL East, where hanging around .500 gets you the basement. From the bottom up this time – Toronto had hopes of contention doomed by poor management decisions on offense (you can’t score so you release Frank Thomas in May? Really?) and injuries to the pitching staff. The Orioles have had a surprisingly strong season thus far, but wisely realize they are still not nearly a contender. Under new management, I look for the Orioles to return to glory in the 2011 timeframe.
In third place sit…the Yankees? Yes folks, the Bronx Bombers are out of the playoffs should things stay static, and while they have shown a capacity over the past decade for late-season runs, this year they are in trouble. Their all-star catcher, Jorge Posada, is likely done for the season with a rotator cuff tear. Their middle infield all-star combo of Jeter and Cano are collectively hitting about 50 points lower this year than in ’07. 2/3 of their outfield is hobbled, with Matsui probably out for the year and Damon trying to play through his maladies. The Yanks have stayed in it thanks to resurgent seasons from Mike Mussina and Jason Giambi, and a successful starting debut by pitching sensation Joba Chamberlain. I fully expect the Bombers to make a trade or three this week to make a run, but I honestly do not think it will be enough this time – yes, Virginia, there IS October baseball without the Yankees, and I think we’ll see that this year for the first time since 1993.
The division is being contested between the old and the new – the Boston Red Sox, ½ game out of first, the defending world champs and a savvy, veteran squad, chasing the Tampa Bay Rays, a team that had never IN ITS HISTORY had a winning season. Tampa actually was forecast to be improved thanks to its young offense, but it’s been the pitching and defense leading the Rays – their offense has been middle of the pack but they’ve given up the 2nd-fewest runs in the league. Tampa has an embarrassment of riches in the minors, as well, and may make a trade for a bat this week. Even if they don’t, they have the talent to be in the mix to the end and grab either the division or the wildcard. The Red Sox have shown their superior management and depth this season, surviving injuries that would have destroyed just about any other team’s chances. David Ortiz is still out with a torn tendon sheath in his wrist, and Manny Ramirez has been in and out of the lineup as well. Curt Schilling never pitched an inning for the team, and yet they have the best run differential (96 more runs scored than allowed) in the league. They have money, but they spend it wisely and they draft extremely well. A partial rebuild is coming in Boston, as Ortiz and Ramirez age, but don’t expect much if any losing in Boston – GM Theo Epstein is just too good and has too many resources to allow that.
So, the verdict? Angels vs. Tampa(wildcard) and Sox vs. Sox in the first round. Whoever wins the Battle of the Sox is my favorite to go to the World Series – we’ll discuss that later.
Next week, we’ll look at youth sports, in particular youth baseball, and discuss what I think has gone wrong with the system.
Dave Glass lives in Clearfield with his wife, Suzanne, and their six children. He can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.