Well, the Pirates once again limp into the All-Star break, 6 games under .500 at 44-50. The details have changed (this Pirate squad has a dangerous offense, moreso than any in recent memory), but the outcome remains the same: the Pirates last enjoyed a winning season in 1992, and they will make it 16 straight losing seasons when October rolls around. Let’s take a look at what has worked and what hasn’t through 94 games, and we’ll also look around the National League at some teams that have surprised and disappointed.
Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette has an excellent report-card-style grade for the team here: http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/08196/896888-63.stm. I agree with all of his grades, and would only point out this quote from the April 7 edition of the Glass Eye: “Nate McLouth won the CF job, and in my opinion could be one of the biggest surprise stories in all of baseball. Look for him to get 15 HRs, 30 steals, and get on base 35% of the time or more.” I admit I expected even better things from Nate, and 15 HRs seemed low to me. However, Nate has exceeded everyone’s expectations, including my own. He is currently batting .281, with a .357 on-base percentage. He leads the league in doubles with 33 and extra-base hits with 55 (3 triples, 19 home runs). He only has 10 steals, but the Pirates as a team don’t run much. In short, his All-Star selection is well-deserved and shows what a buffoon former GM Dave Littlefield was for not believing Nate was of major-league quality.
As you look at Dejan’s grades, you notice that aside from a few disappointments (Sanchez and LaRoche in particular), the offense has more than held up their end. The pitching, on the other hand, has been nothing short of a disaster. Their team ERA of 5.24 ranks DEAD LAST in all of MLB, well below next-worst Texas. They have allowed the most hits, the second-most walks, and the fifth-fewest strikeouts. In short, they’ve pitched terribly and destroyed any chance the team had of contending. The worst offenders have been Ian Snell, who seems like a headcase at this point; Tom Gorzelanny, who is at AAA now and is almost certainly pitching with a hidden injury; and the entire middle-relief corps. Making matters worse is the utter lack of depth in the system – this past week Yoslan Herrerra pitched poorly Monday for AA Altoona, but got a call-up Saturday to pitch for the Pirates because the team was desperate for a starter. Predictably, he got hammered. Considering Littlefield’s stated priority was to build via pitching depth, his failure can now be shown as complete.
So what’s ahead for this group? I said in April that eventually the team would be broken up via trades and I still believe that. In fact, I think that in order to rise again, the Pirates have to suffer through some SERIOUS losing, 100-loss style. The only pieces I would not trade are starting pitchers (who are mostly young and wouldn’t return much value anyway), McLouth and Ryan Doumit (young enough to be around in 3-4 years when the team might be good), and Freddy Sanchez (because selling low makes no sense). Everyone, and I mean EVERYONE else should be shopped and players such as Damaso Marte and Xavier Nady should bring a fairly decent return since they are enjoying standout seasons. The minor-league cupboard is bare and this team’s core isn’t of pennant-winning caliber – time to start over. I know many fans don’t want to hear that, but winning 70-75 games the past 7 years has only kept the team buried in a cycle of mediocrity. For hope, look to Detroit and Cleveland, two teams who had to lose big before they could win big. It can be done in Pittsburgh as well – but hope is at least three years away.
Looking around the rest of the National League, the Cubs and Brewers are clearly the #1 story in the league. The Brewers have rebounded after a slow start and made a bold trade for ace CC Sabathia last week. The Cubs quickly answered, trading for talented but injury-prone Rich Harden. Should Harden stay healthy, the Cubs appear to be the most balanced team in the game, with a strong offense, ace starters, and an effective bullpen. I look for the Cubs to win the division and the Brewers to take the wild card, with the Cards falling off a bit after their surprising start. The Reds are still two players away, and the Astros are a mess – they will be among the worst teams in baseball over the next three years, their farm system is barren and they have no young star talent on their squad.
In the NL East, Philly holds a slim lead over the resurgent Mets. Since I expect only 1 East team to make the playoffs, this SHOULD be the best race down the stretch – both teams have All-Star hitters and some good pitchers, but a variety of flaws as well. I think this race comes down to health and trades made in the next two weeks. As it stands now the Phillies look to be the stronger team, but we’ll revisit this one in early August. The Braves and Marlins are on the periphery of this race, but both lack the depth to stay in it for the long haul. Look for the young Marlins to be 2009’s surprise team, though – Florida is another good model for the Pirates, they have torn down and successfully rebuilt twice now in the past ten seasons.
In the NL West, disappointment abounds as no team is above .500, and the defending NL champion Rockies are buried in the standings. This is another two-horse race, between the Dodgers and the Dbacks. The Dodgers have the chips to trade to improve, while the young Dback offense simply needs to get untracked. My money is on Arizona – I think their hitters will break out of their extended slump, and I don’t trust the Dodgers to make the right personnel moves down the stretch. Everyone else in the division is sunk – the Rockies fell apart, the Giants have three starters and a bunch of junk, and the Padres can’t hit their way out of a paper bag. Look for a MAJOR rebuild in San Diego to get underway soon.
We’ll take an in-depth look at the AL next week, along with some fantasy baseball talk.