8 wins down – 8 to go for the Penguins on the road to the Stanley Cup. Pittsburgh is now 8-1 in the postseason, and everyone is picking them to advance to the finals. Coming off a 3-1 round of predictions, who’s the Eye like in the Conference Finals? Read on…
After dispatching Ottawa in four games, the smart money was that the Pens would face a little more adversity in round 2 vs. the Rangers. And they did – they fought back from a 3-0 hole in Game 1 to win, they lost a game, and…well, they did lose Max Talbot with a broken foot, but he was replaced by Scary Gary Roberts…honestly, compared to the trials and tribulations of the regular season there has been precious little adversity in the postseason for the Pens. Now, they get the Philadelphia Flyers and their distinct brand of rock’em, sock’em hockey. The Flyers will look to turn this series into a grinding war of attrition, and hope that they can win the special-teams battle. The Penguins, however, have shown they can win in a variety of ways – low-scoring, shootouts, finesse, grinding. Pittsburgh has shown it all.
With 2 rounds under their belt, let’s compare the Flyers and Penguins. In 12 playoff games Philly has scored 43 goals (3.58 goals per game) and allowed 34 (2.83). In 9 games Pittsburgh has scored 31 (3.44) and only allowed 17 (1.89). Pittsburgh has outshot their opponents by an average of 6 shots per game (34-28), while the Flyers have been outshot by an average of 33-31. 33 shots is an AWFUL lot to give up per game, and it leads to my main point – through 2 rounds, Philly has been mediocre to bad on defense. The only reason they have made it this far has been the superior play of Martin Biron. Biron has given up his share of goals, but he’s faced a lot of rubber and some glorious scoring chances, especially in round 2 vs. Montreal. The only reason the Flyers won in 5 games over the Canadiens is that Montreal goalie Carey Price melted down in the series, getting pulled in game 3, benched for game 4, and then giving up 2 terrible goals in game 5.
Pittsburgh, on the other hand, has gotten superior goaltending AND yeoman work from its defensive corps. A great example was game 5 vs. the Rangers – the Rangers did not record a shot on goal in the last 15 minutes of the second period, and also did not record a single shot in overtime. At forward, Pittsburgh right now has two premier scoring lines (led by Malkin and Crosby), a solid third line (Staal, Ruutu, and Tyler Kennedy) and an energy fourth line (some combo of Talbot, Roberts, Laraque, and Adam Hall). Pittsburgh has shown such balance up and down its lineup in these playoffs, it’s been hard to find a weakness. Philly also has balanced scoring, but aside from defenseman Kimo Timmonen, their defense is not very mobile and it’s definitely an area to exploit.
Philly can win if they continue to get stellar play from Biron, attack Fleury and get him to wobble like Price did, and stay out of the penalty box. Any less and they won’t win. Pittsburgh, by contrast, just needs to keep doing what they are doing – solid defense, good special teams play, and minimize stupid penalties. Barring a Fleury meltdown, I see no way Philly wins this series, New York is a better team than the Flyers and they went down in five games. Pittsburgh is due for an off game or two, and they traditionally have big-time trouble playing in Philly, which is the only reason this series goes longer than five games. I’m taking the PENS IN SIX.
In the Western Conference, my Dallas upset came through, as Dallas took a 3 games to none lead, lost two, then won a thrilling game 6 in the fourth overtime. Dallas is playing the best defensive hockey in the league, and they’ll need every bit of it to stay with Detroit. The Red Wings have been a machine in the playoffs, averaging 3.8 goals per game while only allowing 2.1. They are outshooting opponents by a whopping 14 shots per game on average (39-25)! They feature balanced scoring and arguably the best defenseman of the last 20 years in Nicklas Lindstrom. Their only weaknesses are potentially in goal, where both goalies are aging, and defensive depth.
Dallas, on the other hand, hasn’t even averaged 3 goals per game in the playoffs (2.92) but are allowing only 2.00 goals per game thanks mainly to standout goalie Marty Turco. Dallas wants every game to be a low-scoring affair, shootouts are not what this team is about. In round two 5 of 6 games were decided by 1 goal, three went to overtime and only one game saw a team get more than three goals (Dallas got 5 in game 2).
Detroit, like Pittsburgh, just needs to keep doing what they’ve been doing. Dallas needs to contain Detroit’s scorers, rattle goalie Chris Osgood, and hope Turco can continue his high-level play. Dallas is strong enough defensively to steal two games, but they just don’t have the firepower to handle Detroit. RED WINGS IN SIX, which if I’m correct on both series would set up one of the best, most entertaining Stanly Cup Finals in years.
Dave Glass lives in Clearfield with his wife, Suzanne, and their six children. He can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net