Well, once again it is time for the latest “Game of the Century, only this time the ratings will probably lend some truth to that, even if the game itself does not. Who has the advantages in Super Bowl XLII, and what surprises might we expect?
We’ll take a look at this, but I want to start with an update on the Pittsburgh Penguins.
I keep waiting for the losing streak, but the team keeps on winning. As I discussed before, the Pens lost #1 goalie Marc-Andre Fleury in early December to a high-ankle sprain. He has still not returned nearly two months later. That was a sign of things to come – since then Gary Roberts broke his leg, out indefinitely; Mark Eaton tore his ACL and had surgery, out for the year; Tyler Kennedy contracted mononucleosis, out indefinitely; and of course the devastating blow, Sidney Crosby has a high-ankle sprain, out for 6-8 weeks. Of the 20 skaters on the ice last night, six of them started the year in the minors, including starting goalie Ty Conklin. And yet, the Penguins defeated division-leading New Jersey last night and temporarily took over first place in the division. They are 8-2-2 in January, and 14-6-1 since Fleury was injured. With 14 games in February, the schedule isn’t going to cut the Penguins a break. Can they keep this up? I think they will slip some in February – Conklin simply cannot keep his pace up (11-2-2 with a 1.97 GAA and a .941 save percentage, the latter two figures would lead the league if he played two more games), and Crosby’s absence will cost them a few wins.
However, there’s a silver lining here – players such as Ryan Malone (2 goals last night), Evgeni Malkin (4 goals in 5 games since Crosby was hurt), and Jordan Staal get a chance to show that this team is about more than Sidney Crosby. The newcomers from the minors get a taste of the big-time, and management gets a chance to see if any of them are clearly ready for the NHL. Defensively, the team knows it has to tighten up and they have – the Penguins are currently in the top 10 in the league in goals against. I predict a record of about 7-5-2 in February, which won’t keep them in the division lead but will keep them solidly in the playoff picture. Crosby should return in mid-March, the Penguins will make the playoffs (probably as the 4 or 5 seed, like last season), and be a much greater threat than they were last season. Even a .500 record from here on out gets them to 92 points, and most years that makes the postseason. It’s hard to predict they make the Stanly Cup finals – they still need another scoring winger – but winning a round or two is very attainable, assuming they don’t suffer any MORE injuries.
On to the Super Bowl, and the big question is what did week 17 mean? Most of you know that the Giants played the Patriots that week and led for much of the game before falling, 38-35. In my opinion that game helped both teams. The Giants were struggling mightily until that game, 4-3 in their past 7 games and showing no consistency on offense. Since that game they have blitzed through three impressive road wins, and Eli Manning’s confidence is at a career-high. On the other hand, the Giants had nothing to lose, and likely didn’t hold anything back in terms of strategy or playcalling. The Patriots most likely did not “show all their stuff”, since the game was meaningless in the big picture. The Giants have given Bill Belichick a free look at their gameplan, and he’s had two weeks to dissect it. Also, the Patriots’ players were doubtless worn-down by week 17, trying to chase the perfect regular season record, but with 2 bye weeks in the past month they will be rested and ready. In my mind, the Giants’ newfound confidence is offset by the Patriots’ rest and time to gameplan.
So, what are the keys for each team? For the Giants, they HAVE to generate a strong pass rush on Tom Brady, and do it mostly with their front four linemen. The occasional blitz is OK, but they cannot commit 5 and 6 rushers consistently or they will be burned. The Giants also need to press-cover Moss, with safety help over the top, and put man coverage underneath on Wes Welker to reduce the easy 7-yarders he tends to produce. This means they will take their chances with Donte’ Stallworth and TE Ben Watson, but you have to pick your poison and I think this is their best shot. On offense, the “thunder and lightning” combo of Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw must contribute about 150 yards on the ground; HOWEVER, they need to come out passing early to loosen up the Pats’ defense. Establish the pass, then go to the run, and shorten the game. Manning needs to continue his remarkable accuracy and decision-making the past month. If they do all that, and if they win the turnover battle, they have a solid shot at winning.
For the Patriots, on offense they need to attack any single-coverage matchups on their WRs. Brady needs to at least try to hit Moss deep a couple of times each half, regardless of the coverage, simply to keep the defense honest. Laurence Maroney should have room to run, and they need to keep a balanced attack to slow down the pass rush. I can’t see Brady having another 3-INT game, but preventing turnovers is a key. Really, they are so dangerous that barring a meltdown, they should score 30 points. On defense they need to pressure Manning often and try to rattle him. Eli has matured but still has a tendency to throw off his back foot at times – if the Pats can rattle him they win easily. They should double-cover Plaxico Burress more than 50% of the time and force Eli to look elsewhere. If they force two critical mistakes, they will win.
Time for predictions: the Giants keep it close for awhile, but Belichick will turn up the defensive heat, force a bad interception or fumble, and Brady will hit Moss for at least one deep TD. The line says Pats by 14, and I think that’s a good line – but if forced to choose, I cannot see this Pats team being denied, and I also think they will make a statement to punctuate their season. Patriots by 20. (As before, I hope I’m wrong)
What’s your Super Bowl prediction? Send me your predicted score and I’ll print the top-2 next week. For the record, my score is Patriots 41, Giants 21.
Dave Glass live in Clearfield with his wife, Suzanne, and their six children. He can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net