The only good thing about Wednesday night’s Pirate loss? The Pens opened their season last night! OK, that’s not much consolation, but I’ll take the positives where I can find them, and this Pens squad promises to be a very interesting one. There have been a lot of changes, no one can accuse management of taking the conservative route here…but will it work? Will the team finally break through and advance in the postseason? Let’s look at what’s changed, starting with the men up front.
FORWARDS
Returning: Crosby, Malkin, Kunitz, Hornqvist, Perron, Bennett, Dupuis (injured), Farnham (AHL most of 2014-15)
Departed: Sutter, Adams (finally), Comeau, Downie, Spaling, LaPierre, Winnik
New Arrivals: Phil Kessel, Nick Bonino, Matt Cullen, Daniel Sprong, Eric Fehr (elbow surgery – out 1-2 months), Sergei Plotnikov
Analysis: The Pens made wholesale changes in an effort to get deeper and faster up front, and on paper it’s paid off. Kessel was a STEAL, they picked up one of the top five goal scorers in the league for a 1stt-round pick, a middle round pick, a spare defenseman and an average prospect in Kasperi Kapanen.
I have no doubt that Kapanen will be a solid NHL player. I also have no doubt that he’ll never impact a game like Phil Kessel. Add in that Toronto actually threw cash into the deal to reduce the salary cap hit and this was a sweet deal for the Pens – Kessel is fast, durable, and, best of all, the right-handed sniper they’ve lacked for years.
Bonino will center the third line at least until Fehr returns – Bonino is basically Brandon Sutter with less flash and more consistent defense. Plotnikov was brought in from the KHL to add some size – and give Malkin a Russian teammate. Don’t underestimate that factor, even if Plotnikov doesn’t score 20+ goals, he can help the team by keeping Malkin comfortable. Fehr is an excellent player, a thorn in the Pens’ side for years while in Washington; he will be an upgrade as well when he’s ready. Cullen is an ideal 4th-line center in the Pens’ new model; he’s fast and can score a bit.
Then we have Sprong, the second-round pick this summer, who was so explosive in camp that he forced management’s hand. There were no plans to keep him, until he took over the preseason; now he’s here on a 9-game ‘tryout’. Don’t think that it’s a done deal for him to be gone after those nine games – Staal and Maatta both were kept under similar circumstances, and both never returned to their junior club. If he can keep up the intensity – and be at least somewhat diligent in the defensive zone – Sprong has a great chance to stick.
Overall this is a big improvement, especially from a scoring perspective. If Fehr and Dupuis can come back healthy, the third and fourth lines should be more dangerous than at any point in the last five years. Adding Kessel gives Sid the sniper he’s lacked since Marian Hossa’s brief cameo. The powerplay should be downright lethal. If this team isn’t top-3 in goals scored, something went horribly awry.
GOALTENDING
Returning: Fleury , Zatkoff (after a year in the AHL)
Departed: Greiss
Analysis: I liked Greiss. I thought he was the perfect backup, but he was a luxury I guess they felt they couldn’t afford. With Matt Murray almost ready in the minors, they are trying to get a ‘cheap’ year out of Zatkoff as the backup; if Fleury gets hurt, expect Murray to get the call and to play more than half of the games.
As for Fleury, he’s now a known quantity…he’s not elite, not top-5 for sure, but he’s definitely above average. Most importantly, he almost never allows the ‘softie’ goals he used to allow so often. He gave a good regular-season effort, and was exceptional in the playoff loss, both last season and in 2014. If he’s healthy, he’s an asset.
DEFENSE
Returning: Letang, Maatta, Cole, Lovejoy, Scuderi, Doumolin
Departed: Ehrhoff, Martin, Pouliot (back to minors)
New Arrivals: Adam Clendening, Tim Erixon
Analysis: This is the unit that will likely make or break the season. By the end of last season, this unit was so thin that they only had five healthy bodies for several games – and half of the playoff blueline was in the minors most of the year. When healthy, this unit is much better than that, primarily because of the top pairing. Letang is in the conversation for top defenseman in the league when he’s healthy, and Maatta showed enormous promise before he wrecked his shoulder.
These two should soak up 25+ minutes per game most nights…as long as they are healthy. That’s the big question. Letang has fought concussion issues and even a stroke, while a recurring shoulder injury on a young defenseman is a major warning sign.
Ian Cole showed he was a top-4 talent after being traded from St. Louis; he was expected to team with Derek Pouliot, but Pouliot’s training camp was the exact opposite of Sprong – he was so disappointing that he got shipped back to the AHL temporarily. Expect to see him back, but for now there’s a gaping home on the second pairing. Clendening has the pedigree, as a former high draft pick – can he find the consistency that eluded him in Vancouver? Can Lovejoy handle a 2nd-pair workload? Ideally, I see Lovejoy and Doumolin as the #3 pair, with the slow-as-molasses Scuderi on the bench.
I wish the team had made an effort to retain Ehrhoff. I knew they’d let Martin go, he was always going to be too expensive and I was on board with the need to give the young guys a shot, but this team needs a big shot from the blueline, and right now they just don’t have that.
Look for this unit to start slowly…there’s a lot of new partnerships here, a lot of change, and Maatta in particular can be expected to show a little rust after a lost 2014-15 season. If the unit suffers injuries and/or Pouliot never figures it out at this level, expect a trade in February to bolster the blueline. Either way, the health and effectiveness of this unit will make or break the season.
TEAM OUTLOOK:
They will score, both at even strength and (especially) on the power play. Their personnel are tailor-made for the new 3-on-3 overtime system; they should derive an above-average amount of points from that change. I think their speed at forward will make their 5-on-5 play above average, even defensively, much as the Rangers do their business.
The problems are on the blueline, especially against bigger, stronger teams and on the penalty kill. Scuderi’s reputation is overblown on the PK, especially 5-on-4 (he’s still great 3-on-5). If the PK can hold its own, this should be a top-3 team in the East. If the defense gets hurt/never gels, another scramble to make the postseason could be in order.
I expect a slower start than last season – coach Mike Johnston doesn’t need to ‘win the locker room’, he has the players’ trust and can use the early season to find the right combinations. The early season schedule is favorable, with a ton of home games, but don’t panic of this team hovers around .500 well into November.
The division is exceptionally tough – only New Jersey and Carolina are in full ‘rebuild’ mode, with the Flyers close to that level (it would sure help to beat the Flyers a few times this year, especially on home ice!). Washington is probably the favorite, with the Pens and Rangers close behind and the Blue Jackets and Islanders also in the hunt.
One of those five teams will miss the playoffs. I don’t think it will be Pittsburgh, but the clock is ticking on this group – another disappointing season/playoff and they might REALLY look to rebuild. This is a very important season, and while I’m not saying they are a Cup favorite I do think they will fare better than last season. I’m predicting second place, 100-106 points, and a deeper playoff run for the Pens this time around.
Next week, I’ll take a quick look around the rest of the NHL.
Dave Glass can be reached at dsglass74@gmail.com.
