MLB has just passed the quarter-pole of their season – the Pirates have played 46 of their 162 scheduled games – and as usual, there are plenty of surprises around baseball. Let’s look at the biggest TEAM surprises, both good and bad.
The Cleveland Indians are the biggest surprise in baseball. Picked by many, including me, to finish dead last in the AL Central, they instead have the best record in all of baseball. They also have the best run differential in MLB, which indicates they haven’t been winning with ‘smoke and mirrors’ – but how have they managed this?
When I reviewed the Indians in the preseason, I saw some hopeful signs on offense, but predicted their pitching would be a disaster. To this point, they have allowed the fewest runs in the AL, slightly ahead of the pitching-rich A’s and Rays. The credit for this primarily goes to Justin Masterson and Josh Tomlin, who have combined for a 10-3 record, 113 innings, and an ERA around 2.54. I’ve long thought that Masterson had potential, but I never saw this kind of a breakout coming – he’s quietly become one of the best pitchers in the league, and with his stuff, he might regress a little as the season goes on but he’s a strong bet to sustain most of his gains.
Tomlin is another story – a control pitcher who has only walked nine and only struck out 27 in 52 innings, he has pitched well above his level and his numbers will level out as the year goes on. The good news is that erstwhile ace Fausto Carmona has improved his peripheral numbers (hits, walks, K’s), but his ERA is still high – he’s a good bet to improve as the year goes on. The bullpen has also been excellent, and pitchers like Rafael and Chris Perez have enough talent to anchor a strong pen. Overall on the pitching side, there will be some regression – no way do the Indians end up as the top AL staff, but with the gains they’ve shown and with 25% of the season ‘in the bank’, it’s very likely they are now an above-average run-prevention team.
Offensively, the picture is a bit muddled – the offense has been carried by Hafner, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Sizemore. Cabrera will certainly regress, Hafner hasn’t played this well in years, and Sizemore is hurt…even if Hafner has turned back the clock, the Indians need others to step up. The good news is, Matt LaPorta is finally showing the form that made him a top prospect, Shin-Soo Choo is a proven hitter and is just starting to produce, and young catcher Carlos Santana also has room to improve.
In the end, the Indians have built a 5-game lead, not insurmountable but the biggest thing in their favor is that the most talented team in the division (in my opinion), the Twins, are thus far the worst team in the game – more on them in a moment – and Detroit may well be the only viable threat left to Cleveland in the division. Watch this division closely over the next month – if the Indians are still on top at the All-Star break, chances are excellent that they will contend through the year.
The big AL disappointment has to be the aforementioned Twins – at 15-27, 11.5 games back, and with a -81 run differential, their season is basically over already. Offense is the big problem in Minnesota – they have scored only 138 runs, easily the worst total in all of baseball! Jason Kubel has had a fairly decent season, but aside from him not one regular player has a slugging % above .400, and the team’s on-base percentage is below .300! Joe Mauer is out with injury, and clearly Justin Morneau is still not 100% after last summer’s concussion (once again, a cautionary tale for Sidney Crosby fans, and particularly for parents of young athletes). Delmon Young has completely regressed at the plate, Jim Thome finally looks done, and overall it looks like this team cannot hit. On the mound, the news isn’t much better – even with a no-hitter, Francisco Liriano’s ERA is north of 6.00, the bullpen is a mess, and there’s no one pitching particularly well.
It’s often said that you cannot win a pennant by Memorial Day, but you can certainly lose it – and that sums up the Twins and Indians well. Cleveland has done nothing more than give themselves a fighting chance, while Minnesota’s season is, for all intents and purposes, already over.
In the NL, you can make a case for the Marlins as a surprise team – except that as I said in my preview, EVERY year is a surprise with them because they turn over their roster constantly. No, the real surprise is St. Louis. Sure, many people had them pegged as a contender, but let me present some facts: As of May 20, Alber Pujols is batting .264 with a .408 slugging%. Matt Holliday had an appendectomy the first week of the season, former closer Ryan Franklin has a 9.88 ERA, and Chris Carpenter is 1-3 with a 4.95 ERA. Given those facts, what would you predict St. Louis’ record to be? I would have guessed maybe 20-25 at best, because I would wonder how they would have stable starting pitching, and where the offense would come from without Pujols and Holliday producing. Now, the Holliday appendectomy was a trick – yes, he missed a week, but since returning he has hit .357 with big power. Lance Berkman appears rejuvenated, with 11 HRs while batting .349. Heck, even Yadier Molina is batting .323. Overall the Cards have FIVE regulars batting over .300, and as a team they are hitting .284. Folks, that’s simply not sustainable…Holliday isn’t going to hit .357, Berkman isn’t going to even hit .300 in all likelihood, and sooner or later the Cards will not lead all of baseball in run production. However, Pujols certainly WILL get hot and mitigate some of those losses, and if/when he does, this is still a top offensive club.
As for the pitching, again a mixed bag – Carpenter will likely pitch better, but Jaime Garcia will certainly pitch worse (1.64 ERA thus far). The bullpen is not filled with flamethrowers and frankly the back end of the rotation is suspect – but pitching coach Dave Duncan excels with this kind of a makeshift pitching staff, so while I think they will regress, they won’t implode as some other staffs would under similar circumstances. In the end, what the Cards have done is given themselves a chance, much like Cleveland – the difference is that the NL Central is COMPLETELY wide open, and this could be THE race to watch in the NL all summer.
Next week, we’ll review the Buccos, as well as look at some individual surprises.
Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.